Don't Forget to Seize the Day

 

Nuclear Jitters
by Joe Orlando of MAD Magazine

The tallest tree
The brightest star
Soon will all be gone.

Do not grieve
For all you see,
Nor woe this flesh and bone.
Nor woe this flesh and bone.

-- From Dust Will Write My Name by William Lee Ellis

Don't Forget to Seize the Day

I think of myself as a Doomer, not a Gloomer.

Yes, I think global civilization will suffer collapse in the near future. Yes, I think the suffering among our 8 billion souls will be horrific. Yes, I think extended Dark Ages are likely, if indeed we do not drive ourselves to extinction. Yes, I believe that prepperation, to the best of one's ability, is prudent.

But to live a life of fear and anxiety? Nah.

We're all mortal. The tallest tree. The brightest star. Soon will all be gone. Get over it.

At least, that's my advice. For the most part, I follow it.

This life - while we are alive - is brimming with hope and joy. We have choices open to us. We have friends, family, lovers. There is music and wine. There is the great, beautiful world all around us.

Same as it's ever been.

So, in the rush of assessments, preparations and learning curves in the face of the gathering storm, don't let it own us.

Let's not be that guy from Nuclear Jitters.

Survival from a Survivor: Selco's SHTF School

Note foodstock at lower left

Learn things, people always need somebody who know to fix things (people, shoes, whatever).

It was not survival movie, it was ugly, we did what we have to do to survive.

Nobody wins, we just survived, with a lot of bad dreams.

-- Selco

Survival from a Survivor: Selco's SHTF School

In my opinion, there is a whole lot of BS in survivor circles.

Sometimes, this has to do with profiteers, hyping their nostrum for survival. Sometimes, it's those whose 'experience' is drawn from media stereohypes (sic). Sometimes the scenarios for which they prepare appear improbable in the extreme. Sometimes the scenarios are plausible, but advocated responses are not. Cruising through resources - both on and offline - it's buyer beware!

So I perk up when I encounter someone who a) has real life experience, b) seemed to learn from it, and c) can share it effectively.

Selco, a Bosnian man writing largely at SHTFSchool.com, shares very hard-learned, first hand lessons from surviving a year of urban collapse in Bosnia.

In the early 1990s, his town of around 50,000 people was surrounded during civil war. Civil authority disintegrated, public services (electricity, water, information) ceased. A desperate struggle for survival ensued among civilians, gangs and the dregs of authority. And all the while, the town was being shelled and bombed.

It was dirty, messy, smelly and deadly.

Selco writes eloquently and movingly about impossible choices under pressure of life and death, and long and short term prices paid for survival. Paid in blood and soul. Not only what must be done to survive, but the impacts of survival itself. He affords both rare insight and example in the struggle to survive and the struggle to live with it.

His is a sobering counterpoint to those who revel in the idea of coming collapse. Who look forward to grand adventure.

Who lived and who died? Persons alone and Rambo types were  the first to go. Those who sought or prioritized violence. Those who were too curious. Or trusting. Or inflexible. Or just unlucky. Many, many choices led to quick death. No honor. No glory. Guts required.

As you read, recall that - bad as that situation got - it was not a full collapse. Airdrops of MREs were ongoing... while mostly commandeered by gangs, these reduce the overall competition for food. Smuggling provided a trickle of resources from less affected areas. It was a crisis, lasting 'only' a year before 'order' was restored (rather than permanent collapse).

From these experiences, Selco has assembled a unique resource. What he and others did, what they might have done, how we might see disaster coming and what we all might do before, during and after.

Social distance is a term borrowed from pandemic response. I believe it to be a foundational strategy of any response to SHTF with a chance of success. In urban settings, it is almost impossible to achieve, and - as Selco's experiences confirm - only then at considerable cost. Relocation to a rural or wilderness setting, outfitted with appropriate skills and tools, is strongly recommended.

If you live in or near a city, or if you must pass through one; if you plan to bug in or out; if you merely plan to survive, Selco and SHTFSchool.com have something we all need.



List of open access articles by category, here.

Pascal's Wager, Adapted for Prepperation

Calvin's Wager
by Bill Watterson

Yes; but you must wager. It is not optional. You are embarked. Which will you choose then?
-- From Pensees by Blaise Pascal

To make a choice is to change the future.
-- Deepak Chopra


Pascal's Wager, Adapted for Prepperation

Blaise Pascal considered the question of how a rational person, in the absence of proof, should wager (bet) with respect to God's existence. It is an early example of decision theory.

Paraphrased (and stripped to bare bones), the argument runs like this:

If God does not exist, belief in Him costs one little.
If God does exist, disbelief costs one much.
Therefore,  it is rational to wager that He does exist, and act accordingly.

Let's restate that in terms of Collapse:

If Collapse is not coming, preparation costs one little.
If Collapse is coming, lack of preparation costs one much.
Therefore, it is rational to wager that Collapse is coming, and prepare accordingly.

Wanna bet?

Fast or Slow Collapse: Why it Matters

The Days of Wind
by Qin YongJun

Slowly, at first, then all at once.
-- Dmitry Orlov on Fragility and Collapse


Fast or Slow Collapse: Why it Matters


Fast and slow are relative terms.

From the perspective of centuries and relative to its duration, the fall of the Roman Empire was relatively abrupt. From the perspective of individuals involved, however, many experienced little change in the course of their lifetimes. It was a Long Descent from the peak of its expansion, through crises and contractions to the Dark Age that followed.

When we contemplate the Collapse of the modern global economy with so much that it entails, many are persuaded that it will be a similar, Long Descent, declining catabolically in fits and spurts over generations, in keeping with most known historical precedent.

Fast Collapse types (myself included) are persuaded that descent will likely be abrupt on our time scale, crashing catastrophically from near peak to near zero in the course of days to months.

Why does this matter? Why isn't it a genteel debate whose outcome will become clear in time... the loser will stand the next round of beer? Why shouldn't we just wait and see?

My answer is that the two scenarios call for vastly different preparations, and on a very different deadline.

If the Long Descent lies ahead of us, our best bet is to establish locally resilient communities, capable of carrying forward in reduced circumstances. The learning curve is relatively gradual for dealing with the economic environment as it (d)evolves. For most, there will be world enough, and time.

But should Catastrophic Collapse be the case, we are more or less flung onto our own resources, struggling amid all others mired in a fully similar plight, minus any functional economy at all.

I present two analogies for slow and fast Collapse, respectively. They are imperfect but illustrate the different preparations which would be important.

Here's an analogy for Slow, Catabolic Collapse:

The TITANIC strikes an island and goes hard aground. The lower hull is flooded and many of the ships stores are ruined, but there is no immediate risk of sinking. The generators go down, and with it many of the ship's systems. But most crew and passenger decks are clear of water. Passengers, while dazed, turn to and begin to work with crew to aid the injured, ensure dry shelter for those impacted and ration supplies. They do best who have good relationships with others aboard - both socially and those with skills. Eventually, some power may be restored and longer term plans undertaken. And so on. But the island has limited resources... things will get worse before they get better.

And one for Fast, Catastrophic Collapse:

The TITANIC strikes an iceberg and sinks within hours. There are no lifeboats (preparations are the responsibility of individuals). Most flounder in the water with a very brief window of survival. Many are drowned by their panicked, desperate neighbors who attempt anything to live. Some had prepared for this emergency, as best the could. Of these, many don't make it; pulled down by the floundering masses. Some fail due to poor choices. A few, thanks to adequate preparation and good fortune survive the immediate disaster. And so on. But they are now adrift among many resources (analogy breaks down, here) but with little to no hope of assistance.

I'm not going to argue, here, for Fast Collapse, though that is my persistent conclusion. But once Collapse begins in earnest one's choices may be tightly constrained. In the face of Fast Collapse, a 'wait and see' approach is likely to become 'waited too long'.

I urge that deciding which scenario is ahead/immanent, and acting upon that decision is a matter of life and death for you and yours. To wait and see is to have made a decision.

A last observation, however... preparations for Slow Collapse do not address Fast concerns, but those for Fast Collapse perform valuable service in many likely Slow scenarios. Even if never called upon, these do no harm. They are like fire escapes which may never be used...

...But you're gonna want 'em once all hell breaks loose.





PS.  This may be the place to mention that I often hear a cheap kind of psycho-analysis speculating on why people conclude whether fast, slow, or indeed any Collapse is probable.We all assess what facts we can, relate them, and attempt predictions to the best of our ability.

Those persuaded that Collapse is likely don't glory in it. Fast Collapse folks don't want to avoid a long, arduous Descent. Slow Collapse folks don't wish to avoid a traumatic, desperate Catastrophe.

I mean, isn't the Future hard enough to contemplate without second guessing motives?

The Knowledge: A Review

The most visible technology we use daily is just the tip of a vast iceberg – not only in the sense that it's based on a great manufacturing and organizational network that supports production, but also because it represents the heritage of a long history of advances and developments. The iceberg extends unseen through both space and time.

-- From The Knowledge by Lewis Dartnell

The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm

Review by Dave Zeiger

Anyone who thinks civilization is indestructible doesn't get out much.

The past is heaped in ruin. The future harbors the chance of natural and/or man-made cataclysm. Our present appears more than a little shaky.

Like our bodies, it's quite possible that something vital will one day give 'way. The system-as-a-whole clutches its collective chest and expires, gasping. Is crushed by falling rock. Or brought low by hurled, nuclear-tipped spear.

What then?

The Knowledge by Lewis Dartnell goes a long way toward answering that question. He provides an over-view of means by which that our world might re-boot itself from little more than scratch. A tool-kit of core, synergetic technologies with which industrial society has been achieved. Yet it is not prescriptive; this Knowledge empowers the future but leaves it to find its own way.

Along the way, Dartnell provides a fascinating tour through the 'engine-room' of our industrial world. He illuminates its essential functions, interdependencies and history. Cataclysm or no, his book will have you looking with new eyes at the ubiquitous, taken-for-granted substances and artifacts permeating our lives. Should cataclysm befall us... well... it's a magnificently conceived gift to the future.

The Knowledge is a tour de force which should appeal, not just to Doomers such as myself, but to any who yet feel the Renaissance passion for the Knowledge of our own times. That lauded and once valued Jack-or-Jill-of-all trades-kind of Knowledge that deepens our appreciation for our world, and extends our reach within it.

Wonderful book, and I mean full of wonders! I return to its pages time and again, as seeds it has sown bloom within me.

The Knowledge initiates a magnificent and, I believe, vital project.

To my mind, it succeeds where many have failed to strike that narrow balance between too much and too little. It accepts its limitations and goes a long way toward persuading those who may be so moved, that a 'stitch in time' is a worthy goal.

Where it is, perhaps, improvable has more to do with presentation than content; the not trivial task of speaking effectively to persons not yet born, and who inhabit a world homo sapiens has never seen. For them, the great torch of technology – from fire to the Clovis point to the germ theory – handed from generation to generation may well have been dropped.

Lewis Dartnell has taken up the part of Prometheus, offering fire to the future.

Godspeed!

As with technology, The Knowledge is but the tip of an iceberg. Visit The-Knowledge.org to participate in re-booting the future.

Tweeting the Future: Thoughts toward Launching a Meme

Seeding a Tree of Knowledge

Where once there was a void,
Now at least there are
Seeds of splendor,
Becalmed belief for another time.
 by Scott Hastie

Tweeting the Future: Thoughts toward Launching a Meme

Okay. So let's assume it's going down hard with a long, dark age ahead, on the order of centuries to millennia. Let's say we want to send a message to our descendants, if any. How might we send it, and what might we say?

Given that high tech media are not likely to survive, we're stuck with lower tech options:

• Social trasmission (institutional, hermetic, tribal, ???)
• Focused oral tradition (memorized) -- (songs, poems, stories, ???)
• The written word (engravings, impressions, durable books, ???)
• All of the above

In all cases, I consider it useful to think in terms of memes, ideas which are 'copied' in one or more media (including human mind and society). I'll speak of our message as a single meme, but it is more likely to be a set of memes.

A meme's success, per se, is determined by:

• Fecundity (high rate of copies) – Tell all your friends! Tell them now! Get them to do the same!
• Fidelity (accuracy with which it is copied) – Hi fidelity gets a message across, while low fidelity soon drifts from its intent (think the game of Rumor aka Telephone).
• Longevity (how long the meme is able to generate copies) – We're still reading the Epic of Gilgamesh and the Code of Hammurabi.

So how might we maximize the odds? Do we send out the naked meme as a podcast and hope it takes? Do we manipulate the message for better transmission? Or even 'encapsulate' it in a vessel (a book, say), that itself contributes to transmission? Or hitch-hike on an already successful tradition? Do we establish a medium, such as a hermetic sect?

My thoughts are evolving along these lines:

• The message should be fashioned concisely in 'scriptural', poetic language using simple, non-technical language. Prose? A poem? A song (the tune of Greensleeves is an ancient, musical meme)?
• It should be inspirational, and at best, useful (possibly as a teaching tool or mnemonic) during transition, both currently and in the midst of a dark age.
• It should be written in durable, portable book form, and also inscribed in stone and/or impressed in fired clay (or equivalent).
• Publication, distribution, memorization, transmission and discussion should be encouraged from the outset.

Scriptures are a tried-and-true method for bringing a body of information through difficult times with good fidelity. They replicate through both written and focused oral traditions, and are abetted by diffuse oral traditions (e.g., schools of propagation, discussion and debate). The feeling of higher purpose associated with scripture improves fecundity and fidelity.

If it is beautifully and compellingly written, it is more likely to have high fecundity. Especially so if it is inspirational and/or useful to persons immersed in a dark age. These should be goals at the composition stage.

Concision is a virtue on all fronts... being shorter, it requires less mental and physical resources for copying (improved fecundity), and is less likely to incur copy errors (fidelity). If it is more often copied into smaller, relatively portable physical media, longevity is enhanced.

Physical media which are both durable and beautifully crafted increase longevity. Holy books which are beautifully bound and illuminated are valuable property simply as objects, protected and treasured regardless of belief in their contents. Many have survived for centuries.

So let's look at some content/format possibilities...

Richard Feynman proposed this single, ingenious sentence, which 'unfolds', under careful inquiry, to yield all of physics (with all other hard sciences implied):

“...All things are made of atoms – little particles that move around in perpetual motion, attracting each other when they are a little apart, but repelling on being squeezed into one another.”

This sentence is deliberately NOT fashioned in compliance with current, scientific consensus in which 'Quantum fields' have supplanted 'Atomic particles'. But not-yet scientists starting from this sentence, have a good shot at figuring out quantum fields on their own, in time. The goal is not up-to-the-minute accuracy, but to provide an accessible starting point to an inquiring mind.

James Lovelock proposed a compendium in clear, unambiguous language, preserving all our knowledge, A Book for All Seasons. Obviously, this would be a BIG book.

Each has transmission liabilities.

Clearly, a tome is not concise, and loses all the advantages of concision. If we wished to transmit our modern knowledge base, memorization – or even understanding the whole – would be out of the question. Few of today's specialists can fully master more than even two fields of knowledge. What's more, the effort of composition and subsequent production would be immense, far beyond the reach of small fry.

A single sentence is more attractive, to me. It is ultra in most of the virtues; ultra-portable, transcribable, easily memorized even by the young. It's a little clunky, however. I suppose it could be written as a limerick?

All things are made out of bits

That whiz non-stop in a blitz.

Apart by a fraction,

They feel an attraction.

But push 'em together, they splits.

Surely you're joking, Mr. Feynman!

Here's a an attempt to mimic successful, albeit less mnemonic forms...

Thus spake St. Feynman

in the Age of Legend:

“All things compose of tiny bits;

atoms dancing without cease

Faster when warmed

Slower when cooled

Heat is tempo

Near, they attract

thrust close, repel

To observe the dance

is to change the dance”

Hear ye the seed of all knowledge!

Sow, and ye shall reap.

There... some poetic license and a hint of quantum physics. An improvement on St. Liebowitz, but still not exactly catchy. Is there a poet in the house?

Wisdom is tougher nut to crack. Its more vague and koan-ish, so is harder to unfold?. Subject to contention, too. But even among religions, Feynman's approach applies. Here's Jesus of Nazareth's summary of Judaism (arranged from KJV)...

This is the first and great commandment:

Thou shalt love the Lord thy God

with all thy heart,

and with all thy soul,

and with all thy mind.

And the second is like unto it;

Thou shalt love thy neighbor as thyself.

On these two commandments

hang all the law and the prophets.

Guatama Bhudda may win the brevity prize, summing his teachings with “Release all attachment.” 

Point is, the concept isn't new, and we have some authorities to consult.

The problem with too much brevity is that, as a vehicle, it has low inertia. Why would a slave in the seventh year of the Warlord Vog pass this on? For that matter, would Vog or his flunkies - who might wish at least to appear wise - pass it on?

It seems to me that, for all its genius, Feynman's sentence or its variants, would have near zero fecundity. The Bhudda's may make it as one meme within an already successful meme set, but that hardly needs our help.

Even among my fellow geek friends, it gains no traction. If they've heard of it they love the idea, but none have managed to learn it by heart. They're hard pressed to remember its important features, despite that they're conversant with the principles. To someone marooned in a dark age, it would be useless and inscrutable blither. If printed on a waterproof card, it would be of better use to patch the roof.

But I think the approach is a good one.

Every line, verse or stanza – each the seed of a whole line of inquiry – would ease the task of those who follow. Each would confer useful knowledge from the very first steps along the path. And with a longer poem or shorter book, there's room to improve the hints, and build one upon the next.

I believe there is a threshold of critical mass, where mere weight of words gain enough gravitas to capture imagination, appealling at any stage of knowledge. They could gain the allure of a gnostinomikon; a book of knowledge, backed by actual science, to shame the grimoires of the past. Every mage who approached would be started on a true path.

Think what a smattering of infection theory might have done for those in a time of cholera? A few, trustworthy and select words to the wise would be invaluable. Only to read that there are miniscule, living creatures which can carry disease by contact, inhalation or ingestion... it doesn't take a medical genius to get from there to patient isolation, or to check the water supply, or to wash hands and dressings.

The scientific method itself -- our greatest invention -- can be drawn in a few words, and guide through the worlds of knowledge. (“Our greatest invention” from Lewis Dartnell). Scientific method, math and logic, physics, mechanics, chemistry, evolution, ecosystemics, economics, politics. All these in seed form.

With such a book in their hands, the great minds which inhabit all times would be put onto the scent, passing at a run the cold, blind trails of ignorance...

...on their way to Renaissance.

***

PS. There's a dark possibility to such a project. It may be that we'd be passing them a poison pill. The jury is still out on whether ours is the best of times or the worst of times. Without hard won wisdom to accompany the power this meme would carry, it might be like passing a live grenade to a baby.

Ruminations on SHTF Strategy

Get lost!

Not being tense but ready.
Not thinking but not dreaming.
Not being set but flexible.
Liberation from the uneasy sense of confinement.
It is being wholly and quietly alive, aware and alert, ready for whatever may come.

-- From Tao of  Jeet Kune Do by Bruce Lee

Ruminations on SHTF Strategy

Like so many Preppers over the years, we have pursued a distinct SHTF strategy. I'd like to share our thinking for your consideration.

This strategy is built around the notions that a) S will HTF, b) it's very difficult to foresee the actual conditions that will pertain when it does, and c) we may be driven off or separated from every material possession we have accumulated in its advance.

Our strategy centers around several key elements:


Subsistence Environment

We have sought out an environment in which it is possible to subsist comfortably with neolithic technologies. Were we to become separated from our every material possession, it would be possible to thrive from local resources, given adequate skills.

This underwrites all the rest with a fail-safer option... under no scenarios in which we remain free and able do we perish for lack of sustenance.

An important aspect of this area are abundant water, and wild forage, fish and game. The world is a garden, and likely to become even more so, post collapse.

By not relying on domestic plants or animals (to which one is bound and beholden), we are less of a target for others.


Social Distance

Our chosen environment is sparsely populated, and requires both knowledge and material resources to venture beyond its sub-urban centers.

This buffers us from pandemic SHTF,  the initial paroxysms of social unrest and, likely, from predatory individuals and groups preying on concentrations of survivors and other resources in the towns.


Mobility

Sailboats are the only vehicles on this planet with unlimited range. (Paraphrased from Tristan Jones).

Without access to fossil fuels, we are able to access resources, networks and safe havens across a wide area. When a location becomes untenable, we  have a chance to shift ourselves and all we possess out of harm's way or to where resources are more abundant.

If need be, we can shift out of the region, entirely, to any island or coast in any hemisphere.


Knowledge Base

Skills toward a reasonable life post-SHTF are many. We feel that their on-going acquisition not only enhances our future chances on our own terms, but increases our value should we fall into the hands of others. 

This seems especially true of medical skills under field conditions. Or hard-won sailing related skills. Or local foraging knowledge. Or field chemistry. Or...


Shorter-Term Stores

We carry enough stores to see us through what seems a reasonable period to tackle post-SHTF learning curves. These especially include the demographic situation (who's left, where they are located, and what is their character), any transition left to master full subsistence, and relocation allowance should our situation seem untenable.


Longer-Term Tools

These are the material possessions which can increase efficiency in meeting our needs.

Examples include our sailing vessel and gear, manual wood and timber working tools, weapons, food processing gear, and books of knowledge not yet mastered.

While we cultivate the skills to reacquire all these from natural and scavenged materials, having them in hand frees us to focus elsewhere.


Live It Now

Living the strategy gives us a head start on vital learning curves.

It questions while there's time to remedy answers we don't like... How independent are we? Can we move as we like? Can we improvise? How long do particular stores last? Is our tool set adequate? What knowledge do we wish to acquire? What are our priorities?

We're perhaps fortunate that our strategy very much embodies how we would like to live, anyway. It's inexpensive, good fun, and a healthy lifestyle.

So why wait for S to HTF?


*****

Two strategies we consciously avoid:


Bug-Out Refugee Status

Many strategies begin and pretty much end with a Bug Out Bag (often geared for 72 hours). When SHTF, the thinking goes, we grab our Bug Out Bag, pack up the car and git out o' Dodge till things get 'back on track'. Went camping as a young 'un... I'll get by.

Problem is, 72 hours is just the leading edge of Collapse. Roads clog. Got fuel?

Running the gauntlet of a SHTF exodus from any urban center is a daunting prospect. 

Dare you leave your family to scout resources or terrain? Do you have relationships with resident locals along the way? Can you protect yourself and yours from bandits? Or even desperate Mr. Jones and family, there, who got out with neither BOB nor blanket? How about a hundred of him? Or a thousand?

But the burning question is, where are you going? And are you prepared to survive - much less thrive - once you get there?

Some good SHTF advice: Don't be a refugee.


Bunker Down

At the other end of the strategic spectrum - and at first glance more attractive - is the Bunker strategy. This is usually a camouflaged, fortified combination of living quarters and warehouse.

Downside is that, camouflage or no, folks have likely heard about it. When push comes to shove, it's going to have its attractions for desperate people. Not being mobile affords them plenty of opportunity for figuring out the chinks in your armor. The bastards can grind you down by attrition or burn you out and naked into the open.

Warehoused stores are finite, and have a shelf-life. Sooner or later, we've got to emerge from our walls and try our hand at gardening, hunting or forage. Once we do emerge, we'd find ourselves behind on the learning curves for how to live outside our bubble.

It seems to us that the sheer investment in this strategy can tempt one into staying on past that moment when, as Willie Nelson says, ya gotta know when to walk away, know when to run. It's gotta be tempting to 'make a stand', rather than to retreat and regroup.

Theory of warfare generally equates immobility with defeat. What does that tell us?

*****

The Big, Bad Picture

Should SHTF on our national or global scale, I expect all domestics nuclear plant to go LOCA (Loss of Coolant Accident) for want of industrial level support. This means that the Northern Hemisphere is going to be heavily irradiated in short order. This will especially be true in certain wind- and watersheds.

Missing from our strategy is relocation to the Southern Hemisphere on the far side of the Equatorial Convergence Zone (hemispheric wind divide). We have the means, but...

Good idea, but it means trading our present life and friends for a shot at a future life with unknown peoples, among whom we would be refugees. We'd trade a good chunk of what learning curves we've climbed to begin at the bottom.

As we age, the potential for return on such an investment is diminishing. If we had made that move as young sailors, maybe. But now?

We'll likely accept what comes to us and make our stand here, in our home waters.

Trade/Barter Items for SHTF

What'chya got in trade??

Trade/Barter Items for SHTF

Q: What's a good, TEOTWAWKI investment?

A: Tangibles.

Okay... that was the easy answer. I think we can take it for granted that stock options, bearer bonds, Federal Reserve notes and their ilk are poor choices.

How about gold, silver and gemstones?

Ken Neumeyer suggested in Sailing the Farm (great book, BTW) that of the three, silver was preferable:

A) Being of relatively lower value, one is less likely to be killed for one's purse.
B) Much easier to 'make change' (a $1K bill isn't worth much at the fleamarket).

... and believers in colloidal silver properties might add:

C) It's inherently useful.


Still, any of the above assume an economy somewhat above the barter level. Exchange tokens (as opposed to inherently valuable goods and services) represent a value which is not inherent in the token itself. A gold coin, for instance, only represents abstract value beyond its worth as an especially malleable metal. 

While some amounts of such trade stock may be useful in soft-landing scenarios, a hard-landing (which could be local or regional) may well devalue abstract tokens to brass tacks.

Bear in mind that trade/barter post-collapse is inherently dangerous whether on the supply or demand side of the table. Here's an excellent article on trade considerations from a real-world situation, written by Selco.

*****

So what kinds of goods are suitable? Here's a list of criteria, some or all of which may be desirable:

• Value -- Short Supply / High Demand items imply things which are necessary and hard to find or fabricate in foreseeable conditions.
  
  
• Portability -- This implies physically small, lightweight goods, preferably with high value for their 'footprint'. This will vary in importance, depending on one's strategy (e.g., freehold vs. nomadic) and actual options in the event. Remember that even the best bunker situation may become untenable.
  
  
• Durability -- We don't want a short shelf-life or the burden of maintenance.
  
  
• Renewability? -- Some things (e.g., seeds, yeast, algaes, dairy cultures, etc.) not only meet the criteria, but can be multiplied!
  
  
• Economy -- Ironically, we have to obtain most of these goods prior to any collapse. Therefore, we'd like something affordable in the here-and-now.

In making our evaluation, consider what kinds of things might be common in abandoned homes or businesses. If a hard landing does occur and populations plummet, the supply of many useful items may outstrip the demand. Aspirin, say (which I never-the-less listed below), could conceivably be found in every medicine cabinet of abandoned suburbs.

*****

So here's a list (in no particular order) of ideas that have come my way. I'll come back and add to it, over time as new ideas come in. Please feel free to suggest items in COMMENTS.

KNOWLEDGE -- Best trade item! Zero footprint; inexhaustible; improves with age; useful in the meantime; can't be taken from you; makes you more valuable alive-than-dead; builds trust and community. Recall that time is money (or the equivalent)... our skills as practiced by ourselves are themselves valuable and negotiable.

Seeds -- Non-hybridized seeds, chosen for your region are a good choice. Consider durable packaging to extend their shelf-life. There are many seed packages already assembled, so a lot of the work has been done for us. Still, you might want to specialize in a few varieties for trade. Consider potatoes (carbohydrate intensive) and high-nutrition plants. They have the unique advantage of being a renewable trade item.

Files and Rasps -- These are hard to fabricate by hand, even with a full blacksmithy and skills to match. Even small ones -- such as 'points' files are extremely useful for modifying metal objects.

Sawblades (bowsaw and hacksaw) -- Ditto... consider non-tempered teeth, which can be sharpened and kerfed.

Drill Bits -- Ditto.

Razor Blades -- Good for many tasks (including surgical). Single-edged RBs can be used like a knife.

Thread and Needles (Notions) -- I like polyester upholstery thread for strength and longevity. Larger cones are more compact, though harder to exchange unwound thread.

String -- "A World without String is Chaos!" I like tarred nylon 'seine twine' (fisheries supplies)... it comes laid and braided in various weights. Paracord is another good option, but is relatively bulky. Knowing how to make twine, cord and rope is a great skill!

Bug Netting -- This stuff can be worth its weight in what-have-you! Consider the distinction between 'Mosquito Netting' and 'No-See-Um Netting'. NSUs walk right through Mosquito Netting. It can be bought in jackets, pants and head-gear, but is more versatile and compact in rolls of raw fabric. It's surprisingly durable, too.

Surgical / Dental tools -- These are handy for many things besides their intended use. Tooth extractors are going to be something many wish they had.

Clove Oil -- This is a topical anesthetic (among other values) with a long shelf life.

Aspirin -- This and its analogues are handy and versatile stuff. It may be common in abandoned homes, but maybe not.

Antibiotics, anesthetics, anti-histamines, provodone iodine -- These are the backbone of a medicine chest. Research and stock to taste... look for long shelf-lives in ambient conditions.

White, granulated sugar -- Sugar is an effective antiseptic wound packing. It hampers bacterial growth by drawing moisture from their cells. It has the same effect as a food preservative. It's a feedstock for alcohol production. And sweet!

Firestarters -- I think many of us will be shocked to find how hard it is to make a fire without help. Magnesium starters, Fire Pistons, Magnifying Lenses and good old Flint/Striker Kits may become precious. Be sure you have the know-how to pass on with the method.

(Sawyer) Water Filters and Straws -- Compact, long life, reasonable through-put, flushable.

Mylarized Plastic Space Blankets -- Cheap, compact, multi-purpose, with good heat reflectivity. More versatile than ponchos.

Distillation Supplies -- E.g., (copper) tubing and high-performance yeast (Champagne yeast, for example, has high tolerance for alcohol while others perform at lower temperatures). Alcohol is in high demand and has many uses.

Standard Canning Lids -- Canning jars don't fit our pack-lightly criteria, but can likely be salvaged. The lids, however, have limited use life... new ones may stay in high demand.

Fishhooks, Net and Line -- These can be improvised, but no comparison.

Snare Wire -- Ditto.

Pure Sulphur -- Hard-to-locate/isolate ingredient of black gun-powder.

.22 Ammo -- LR, mostly, but shorts and shot loads are useful, too.

O.B.s -- This is a type of applicator-less tampon, which is therefore much more compact. Multiply useful for menstration, wound packing, blotting, the odd Molotov...

Playing Cards -- Cards are astoundingly common in the literature of desperate times. Gulags, depressions, Shanghai vessels, gold rushes... tattered decks can be found in all of them. A new, unmarked deck is likely to have value among any group at the boredom stage of survival.

Condoms -- Life does go on!  8)

 *****

Other interesting ideas include spirulina algae, yogurt starter, honey, tobacco, nails, springs, shock-cord and...???

See ya at the exchange!

A Stitch in Time

From Disaster Movie by LionsGate

For years I've been huffling about TEOTWAWKI, The End Of The World As We Know It.

My first serious introduction to the concept, back in the '80s, was through the book Limits to Growth by Meadows, et al. Recently, an excellent animation, There's No Tomorrow by Incubate Pictures (see at top of righthand sidebar) lays out the situation in a clear and accessible  manner.

Go watch it...      ...Okay, you back?

Growth is inherently exponential. Any system with a positive growth rate doubles in a finite period of time. The only alternatives are cessation of growth or decline, neither of which are viable options for our credit (aka debt) based economy. Planetary resources are finite. These are facts, universally agreed upon.

The core assertion is that consumption is proportional to the scale of the system. When it doubles, so does consumption. Historically speaking, this has been an understatement. Growth in consumption has outstripped growth of combined world economies and population (aka, the rising standard of living, averaged). This is also agreed upon; this growth is, in fact, considered necessary to modern economies.

Critics contend that we can innovate our way out from under the connection between growth and increased consumption. They assert that free market forces will drive innovation and make profitable the tapping of previously exorbitant reserves.

The problem I see with this is that innovation takes place within the laws of thermodynamics. It does not pull rabbits out of hats. Current conditions offer immense rewards for successful cold fusion, for example, but to no avail. Uneconomic reserves may become  profitable to develop, but only if energy and other necessaries in the process remain relatively inexpensive. Rising costs of extraction and processing could eat up profitability.

The question is, how many doubling periods can we sustain before consuming the last of some vital resource (one upon which a functional economy depends)?

 If your answer is "some finite number", welcome to lunatic fringe. If it's "some infinite number", congratulations... you're completely sane (you may leave, now... nothing in this post is going to make sense to you).

We've saturated the planet (no new, fertile continents to expand into). We've halved our reserves of energy, more or less, with no viable prospects to replace it. We've committed our economic and physical infrastructures, globally, to a dependence on cheap energy (particularly oil) and continuous growth. The same situation and consumption dynamics apply, even more strongly, to other non-renewables necessary to modern economies. Water, topsoil, plastics, to name a few.

Long odds are, we don't have another doubling period in us.

Despite quibbles over timing and mechanism, in doubling time we find ourselves approaching the end of our run. The glass is half full of us, half empty of resources. And that's the problem... sometime between now and when we double again, that's it.

A stitch in Time.


*****

So here's how Anke and I approach all this in the here and now...

First, the observation that we're fortunate to be loving the life we live. We'd be out sailing on a shoestring whether or not we think the sky is falling. It's a happy coincidence that what we like doing is also a stitch in time.

Second, anybody looking forward to TEOTWAWKI just isn't picturing it. We're now some 7 billion souls on a planet that had substantially less than half that when I was born. One billion (a thousand million) of them are critically malnourished at present. For them, TEOTWAWKI has begun, and nobody's dancing.

Third, the bunker/hoarder approach isn't to our taste. I mean, look. A big pile of food ties you down. In the scenarios where it comes into its own, it's an attractive nuisance. Chances are it won't be starving hordes over-running your redoubt (not that we'd care to mow them down if it were), but a desperate yahoo with an improvised slingshot, who'll put your lights out from behind while you're rotating canned peas. And when that food's gone, it's gone.

Our (engineless) sailboat affords us mobility - the means and skills to git, if and when the gittin's good. Safety from mobs (likely to be orbited and infested by bullies, thieves and other abusers) lies in social distance. Forage is good, in our area, but is spread wide over a large region. Should trade be possible, the ability to transport goods from one zone to another is essential.

Hoarding is a dead end, for us, but we do keep a years worth of supplemental carbs aboard (grains and legumes). A straight up benefit is that we don't have to check into any town, much less a larger one (with cheaper goods) for a year at a time. In TEOTWAWKI terms, it would give a year or more to address whatever learning curve new conditions present (depending on how quickly we learn to extend it with local, wild plants).

That learning curve plays out against our chosen grounds. Despite inroads, it's one of the richest and most intact bioregions left in North America. As we learn to subsist in ever greater degree, that abundance is fresh food in a natural pantry that can't be emptied, broken into or burnt.

Skills are the greatest possessions in a desperate world. Not only are they directly useful, they can't be taken from us, and make us more valuable alive than otherwise. Don't take up space, don't rust (well okay... they fade a bit), and sharpen with use. How to make things, find and identify and prepare plants, hunt and fish, make fire, treat trauma and illness. That's a hoard worth having!

Tools are handy things. Steel tools are what separate us from neolithic technology (which, by the way, I consider superior technology, and the hope of the further future). Steel, and a mountain of knowledge and practice. I see workable steel being readily available for several generations to come. Couple that with a basic knowledge of metalworking, and you can bootstrap yourself up from any pile of scrap. Start with a knife.

Meanwhile, the boat and its gear, a good set of handtools, food processing, sewing and fishing gear pretty well covers the field.

Last but not least is community. People you know, trust and love; who know, trust and love you in return. These will be your allies if and when push comes to shove. You'll have things to offer one another none foresaw. Knowledge and skills and strengths in common. Resources and tactics. Commiseration and good times.

Anke and I have such a network webbed across all the communities of our range. We meet and bond with new folks every season; reconnect and deepen our ties with old friends.

If you're reading this, I'm pleased to count you among them.



*****

 Post Collapse Skills to Get NOW

• Survival Training
• Basic Medical Training (don't neglect midwifery)
• Pharmacopoea (natural medicines and tinctures, aspirin, antibiotics, anaesthetic)
• Dentistry (cavity stabilization, tooth extraction)
• Basic Self Defense
• Engineless Sailing

• Make Fire, Vinegar, Pine Tar, Charcoal, Tallow, Soap, Rope/twine, Leather, Weaving
• Flint-napping? Basketry? Pottery?

• Forage / Gardening / Food Preservation (drying, smoking)
• Milling / Plant Oil Extraction
• Beekeeping
• Fishing / Hunting (snares)
• Carpentry / Boatwright
• Metalwork (forging, tempering and shaping tools)
• Leather tanning

• Stone-age skills (start-from-zero skills)

Stuff to Get NOW

• Sailboat, Gear and Outfit
• Full Set of Hand Tools
• Fixit Materials 
• Non-Hybrid Seeds
  
• Year's Supply of Food?

• Firearms / Ammuniton
  
  Just a couple thoughts on firearms...
  
  A .22 rifle is a versatile weapon, and was the choice of Inuit hunters (among the best in the world). Ammo is inexpensive and compact, and comes in a variety suitable for a range of uses. They're light, accurate, and powerful enough (with a well placed shot) to take down the biggest game, and certainly deer. Do note that it is illegal, in most states, for game larger than varmint, being considered too light for a reliable kill-shot.
  
  A shotgun is even more versatile. With an array of barrels, chokes and ammunition types it can range from birdshot to big game, being fully adequate at every stage. Unfortunately, ammo and accessories take more space, and is quite expensive in comparison to the .22 .
  
  Firearms aren't necessary for hunting, but they, like food on board, give a cushion for tackling the learning curve.

Location, Location, Location

So we believe it's all coming down in TEOTWAWKI. Where do we want to be when it does?

There's a good, solid argument for staying where you are, or close. Chances are, you know the the lay of the land, if nothing else. You may have community... a network you can count on, at least to some extent, when SHTF. Local resources, forage and a general wealth of knowledge accumulates - consciously or sub-consciously - the longer one lives in an area.

But in evaluating your locale and potential alternatives for SHTF/TEOTWAWKI situations, consider the following:


Proximity to Large Populations

'Large' is relative to the carrying capacity of the the land. When supply-on-demand fails, chances are the carrying capacity of urban and suburban areas will be near zero. Even if intensive gardening could support a larger population, they are not now, and are not likely to be widespread. The prepare/sow/harvest cycle requires seed, and time far in excess of that which will be available.

This applies equally to rural  'small towns'. Pressures will be less for them, but food is rarely grown locally in quantities that will support a population in the thousands. Monoculture has rendered even farming communities vulnerable. Single crops do not provide full nutrition. When pesticides and herbicides become suddenly unavailable, pests may well consume entire harvests on or near 'factory' farms.

Hunger has and will drive populations to desperation. Within a week of Orlov's Stage 2 Commercial Collapse, large and dense populations will slide quickly to Stage 4 Social and even Stage 5 Cultural Collapse.

Distance from such concentrations is a plus.


Availability of Wild Forage

The ability to subsist from wild forage may be essential. Even if one has laid in supplies, these will eventually run out. Crops fail for a number of reasons. We may become separated from our base by force or circumstance. Supplies are heavy and bulky, meaning (land-based) mobility is out of the question.

The ability to live off the land is the ultimate fail-safe.

Is your locale environmentally intact? Does it have a range of wild plants, fish and game? Do you have the means and skills to forage, fish and hunt? Did the indigenous peoples thrive, master foragers within an intact ecosystem that they were? Were they obliged to follow game migrations, or did they form settlements? Were they dependent on some extinct or eradicated species (such as buffalo)?

Water

Even more pressing than food is the question of potable water. In some regions, of water at all. Even if we have laid in filtration and purifying tools, again, we may become separated from our base.

It's tempting to think that, because water comes out of a tap, that it's readily available. Much water is transported far from its source via sophisticated delivery systems requiring regular attention and maintenance. Some of it is pumped from deep within (receding) aquifers, no longer the stuff of home equipment.

Does your area have clean, free-flowing surface water? Is groundwater secure, and can you reach it? If you are attached to a specific location, does it have a reliable source of water?


Airsheds and Watersheds

We face the likelyhood of widespread radioactive emissions from domestic nuclear plants (my post on the subject). Factories, refineries and cities, among other large undertakings, store many toxins. In TEOTWAWKI, sooner or later, most of the containment arrangements will fail, releasing their contents into the environment.

What's upstream and upwind? What are the groundwater flow patterns, and do they pass near possible sources of contamination?




Area of Viablility

Should you be forced to go nomadic or relocate, is the area you're considering large enough to meet these criteria at every step along the way? Consider that many of the more or less intact ecosystems remaining have, in many cases, been reduced to islands.

Is that island big enough for yourself and those for whom you are responsible? Will others be drawn to the same refugia, and is that acceptable to you?


Terrain

Some terrain is considerably less accommodating than others. In many areas, roads follow the only reasonable routes through harsh terrain. Roads, historically, have often been infested by bandits, making them virtually impassable to all but large, armed caravans. Easier terrains allow wider options, and reduce the bottleneck effect.

Does the area you're considering provide easy movement in most any direction? Does it provide cover? Concealment for camps?

If you are settling in a specific location, do you have the high ground? Can you monitor the approaches? Do you have an escape path?

*****

M.D. Creekmore and others have emphasized this rule: Do NOT become a refugee.

In hard times, persons who have been uprooted are extremely vulnerable. The amount of gear that can be carried varies with circumstance, and may comprise no more than what can be packed. Local knowledge fades with every step away from the familiar. Locating such basic necessities as food, shelter and potable water require time and energy, drawn from short supply. Individuals and small groups may be prone to assault, theft and worse, by others operating on ground known to them.

Settled groups will have little incentive to offer help or hospitality; considerable disincentive, in fact. There will be no asylum at the end of the run.

In terms of preparation, then, a corollary would be to relocate now to where you want to be when SHTF. There may not be a single day's free travel when it does. If travel closes down, one is either stuck where one is, or a refugee. A New Yorker planning to fall back to Yosemite, or even Maine is likely to see plans gone agley.

The learning curve within any environment is a long one... getting to know its ways, strengths and limitations takes time and application.

If you're going to be prepared, the time is now.

Laurence Gonzales' Rules for Survival

Rules for Survival 
From Deep Survival by Laurence Gonzales


0. BE HERE NOW. This is Laurence's daughter's summation of all the rest.

1. Perceive and Believe. Don't fall into the deadly trap of denial or of immobilizing fear. Admit it: You're really in trouble and you're going to have to get yourself out.

2. Stay Calm. Use your anger in the initial crisis, survivors are not ruled by fear; instead, they make use of it. Their fear often feels like (and turns into) anger, which motivates them and makes them feel sharper.

3. Think, Analyze, and Plan. Survivors quickly organize, set up routines, and institute discipline.

4. Take Correct, Decisive Action. Survivors are willing to take risks to save themselves and others. But they are simultaneously bold and cautious in what they will do. They handle what is within their power to deal with from moment to moment, hour to hour, day to day.

5. Celebrate your success. Survivors take great joy from even their smallest successes. This helps keep motivation high and prevents a lethal plunge into hopelessness. Viktor Frankl put it this way: “Don't aim at success–the more you aim at it and make it a target,the more you are going to miss it.”

7. Enjoy the Survival Journey. It may seem counterintuitive, but even in the worst circumstances, survivors find something to enjoy, some way to play and laugh. Survival can be tedious, and waiting itself is an art.

8. See the Beauty. Survivors are attuned to the wonder of their world, especially in the face of mortal danger. The appreciation of beauty, the feeling of awe, opens the senses to the environment.

9. Believe That You Will Succeed. It is at this point, following what I call “the vision,” that the survivor's will to live becomes firmly fixed.

10. Surrender. Yes you might die. In fact, you wil die–we all do. But perhaps it doesn't have to be today. Don't let it worry you.

11. Do Whatever Is Necessary.

12. Never Give Up. If you're still alive, there is always one more thing that you can do.