The above graph is adapted from Limits to Growth, Recalibrated (2023). It is not a hard and fast prediction, but rather the product of a model with 50 years of high correspondence with developments. We are, at present, near the far side of growth curves, with several in apparent plateau. Post peak modelling does not factor in such disruptive factors as climate change, or social unrest and systems failures consequent to economic collapse.

We are on the modeled brink of sudden declines in food and industrial output curves. At the same time, the US Government and international relations are being abruptly reworked. This strikes me as 'perfect storm' conditions for abrupt, global economic collapse, triggering the onset of TEOTWAWKI.

I fear a hard landing... no 'reboot' or 'transition' to a lower functioning economy. I urge high priority preparation now.

I've got a short glossary of terms at the bottom of this page... if you come across an unfamiliar term, please scroll down and check it out.

Information I'm including or pointing to doesn't mean I necessarily agree with it. Rather, I've found it to be stimulating and worthy of consideration. I'm sure you'll exercise your own judgement... we're nothing if not independent! 8)
Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Guerilla Gardening: Interview with James-David Sneed

 

Apologies to Grant Wood's American Gothic


As our communal spaces—town squares, streets, schools, farms, plants—are displaced by the ballooning marketplace, a spirit of resistance is taking hold around the world. People are reclaiming bits of nature and of culture, and saying ‘this is going to be public space’.


Guerrilla gardens have been gaining momentum and publicity across the world. Whether for comestible, aesthetic or political purposes, gardeners are challenging the constraints of private and tightly controlled 'public' properties. Land considered marginal or 'wasteland' is being made to bloom without license.

For nomads and others underway, without a legal foothold on the land, our guerrilla gardens will have a particular character. They will be diffuse plantings of enhanced wild and hardy domestic varieties. They will be designed to thrive with little attention and offer something at most any season.

The following interview, while focusing on SE Alaska, presents possibilities and attitude which may be applied anywhere. Gardening is easier almost anywhere than here. So long as one works with their environment, guerrilla gardens can concentrate and supplement the food resources of any area.

Southeast Alaska has thousands of micro-climates across it's approximately 300 mile length and seventy mile breadth. What varies is amount of snow pack, days of snow and freezing conditions, amounts of rain, maximum and minimum temperatures (summer and fall), and altitude.

What is constant across the region is the long summer daylight hours, the short winter daylight hours, and the effect upon plants of the rapidly increasing light in spring and the rapidly diminishing light in fall.

Due to the maritime influence, gardens at sea level often have months longer frost free dates than do many esteemed areas much farther south, extending our growing season. Yet Southeast is a boreal rainforest; its 'shoulder seasons' tend to be cool and rainy, with somewhat drier weather and long summer daylight hours between. Amounts of rain vary a bit from north to south, coast to mountains, and behind rain shadows such as those provided by the combination of Baranof and Kuiu Island acting in concert.

Soils are generally acidic, except for those in river drainages and limestone deposit areas. The low angle of the sun means soils are generally cold due to most of the energy skipping off the surface and back into the atmosphere as a result of the oblique angle of solar incidence.

It is often true that our soils are short on nitrogen, but not always, since there are great reservoirs of humus in certain locals. Unfortunately, except in the alder woods and salmon/thimbleberry patches, the benefit of that humus is limited by extreme acidity.

James-David Sneed has gardened and farmed from Homer to Prince of Wales, and in the Pacific Northwest for several decades. He specializes in seed production and research that enables homestead gardeners to produce real food security in their own yards and neighborhoods, as local as food can be. He envisions our gardens to be a compliment to gathering our food from the wild with a reverence and respect for Nature's abundance. His emphasis is on rediscovering the simple, low-cost tools, methods, and attitudes that sustained humans for thousands of years before the industrialization of agriculture.

*****


DZ: Guerrilla gardens are sometimes also referred to as outlaw gardens. What is their legal status?

JDS:  Generally, gardening WITHOUT permission on public lands is illegal by one or another statute. The exceptions to this seem mainly to be associated with permitted temporary residence on those lands, such as mining or trapping cabins, or dwellings associated with a paid lease for shellfish farming or similar pursuits.

Non-public lands usually come under trespassing laws, but charges generally have to be filed by the landowners.

The trick then, assuming you've exhausted all other means and must needs grow your own food in order to survive, is to not get caught. That involves, silent, non-motorized activity, out of sight of most traveled waterways, with minimal time spent visibly disturbing the soil or being occupied by other obvious garden tasks.


DZ: What might one do to lower a guerrilla garden's profile?

JDS:  Remember, nearly all activities are visible by air, and garden season overlaps with charter fishing and hunting seasons, when clients are transported into the wilderness by float plane. Think in those terms, learning to site small patches of mixed vegetable types (no monocultures larger than ten feet by ten feet) against a backdrop of alders whose canopy obscures the ground from the air. Leave NO bare patches of worked ground.

Get used to planting one or two hills in a spot. One hill of three or four seed spud pieces can produce as much as twenty pounds of spuds. These hills can undergo rotation and other good gardening practices such as mulching, fallow, and cover cropping.



DZ: What would you look for in a garden site?

JDS:  There are two basic approaches... find an ideal spot or fashion one.

Most gardens are something in between, and the degree towards either approach is determined by one's circumstances. If your transportation is limited, and your environs are rocky, you'd put more effort into compost piles, ideally the winter before you plant. I often make new beds by just siting a giant compost pile where I want the future bed, and when the compost is well-done, I plant right there.

My favorite sites are on slight to moderate south or southeast slopes, covered with alders of at least a dozen years in age - twenty is better - as it is the more developed root systems that have the great masses of specialized bacteria "fixing" nitrogen from tiny air pockets in the soil and concentrating it into orange-ish nodules, a few inches underground. Those nodules should be stripped from any roots you dig up, and left in the soil to release their nitrogen.

Those alder patches are fairly neutral in pH, suited to most veggies, and have a crumbly soil texture due to the high humus content. Although moist, the soil is seldom soggy there.

I like a fair amount of breeze at a garden site, reducing the incidence of fungal plant disease such as mildews. Although I depend on rain for irrigation, it doesn't hurt to have a stream nearby either to sub-irrigate the garden beds or to be close enough to carry water during dry spells. It's really best to scout garden sites the previous year, once during wet times and once during dry periods. I am constantly scouting... whenever I hike, hunt or fish my protein.

I also look for wild-gather opportunities nearby, such as berries for my snacks while tending the garden. Nettles are a sign of VERY rich soil, and they make a good green compost crop. The same thing is true of Russian or wild celery (pushki).

One thing I try to avoid is siting gardens in openings just off of deer trails.....that's just inviting problems.

Remember there is less frost at sea level, and easier access to wonderful sources of nutrients. Utilize the areas in the dirt/sand mixture at the top of the high tide zone.


DZ: What might be done to enhance the site?

JDS:  I used to labor hard with a heavy grub hoe to dig out the alder stumps and roots, but as my back has aged faster than my mind, I realized I can simply cut the trees a bit high, let the stump roots rot for a year or two, and then use the high stumps as leverage, pushing them over and thereby lifting the roots from the ground. I just plant between the stumps the first year, and sometimes use them for pea poles meanwhile. 

I've also seen an interesting method where a cable and come-along hand winch are strung from head-high on a tree I wish to remove, over to a substantially larger tree as an anchor. Each day the winch is cranked as far as comfortable, and the alder roots begin to lift from the ground. In a week the tree has been pulled free, and it's roots have left behind some rather pre-tilled ground that requires little working before planting. It's already fertilized naturally with the nitrogen nodules torn from the alder roots. This is ideal potato ground.

Whether removing the roots now or later, that action really loosens the soil. Whenever possible, what we really want is loosened soil, not tilled and inverted layers.

Removing salmonberries and thimbleberries by hand-digging is much harder than alders, and since you'd be destroying a wild food source it doesn't make any sense unless it is the only spot you can garden. Those berries generally form good soil under themselves after a few years of growth. 

Selective thinning of a FEW timber trees in old growth allows increased solar energy to reach the vaccinium berries... such as early alaskan blueberry and huckleberry.


DZ: Would you do anything to enhance the soil?

JDS:  Even with ideal sites, and especially where soil must be built, I add crushed seashell, a little wood ash with a lot of charcoal in it (I clean my woodstove before it burns all the way down to powder ash).

I add lots of seaweed. My favorite is to gather dry seaweed high up on the beach (just after a full or new moon, with a couple days for it to dry a bit) and cram it into a bucket, crushing the driest portions. The stringy stuff that won't crush goes in my compost or for mulch, and the powdery or flaky crushed parts very quickly work into the soil, or can be soaked to make liquid seaweed fertilizer.

I pick up moose and deer droppings. When I am living onsite I bury my own humanure a couple feet under the hills I plant my squash in. It's decomposition will actually heat the soil above it for better growth. All fish wastes go into future beds (safest to do this in Fall when the bears are already well-fed. I once experienced my own dogs digging up oil-fish that were buried under squash beds.

If planning ahead by building compost piles, fall leaves from the alders, birch, cottonwoods and crab apples are great, and good for winter mulch on your hardy cole crops.

Sometimes I just bring buckets of soil from under alder patches to otherwise rocky sites that have more solar exposure.


DZ: Are there any cautions to altering a wild site?

JDS:  Any wholesale changes can have deleterious unexpected consequences, such as expecting great things from clearing a lot of trees and then finding out you've opened up plants unused to the wind to buffeting and damage as they are no longer protected by a group. Groups of trees are like a semi-permeable wall, allowing "broken" wind to scoot around individual plants without harming them.

This also means that whether sculpting established plants or planting new choices, mixed heights, widths and densities are a good idea. Again, our "gardens" should be a mirror of the way Nature works in the wild rather than a wholesale recreation of it.

Any alterations such as weeding are best tried first over a smallish area as you observe the results for a few seasons, then proceed accordingly dependent on the results. Certain plants appearing to be weeds may have a beneficial effect, acting to suppress other plants that are even more damaging to the favored species, or adding some necessary substance, or acting as a trap crop for a pest. If simply weeding for bare surface, then the soil should be left to dry by sun and wind in order to kill rootlets that stayed in the soil and could resprout as new weeds

One should be careful not to over-fertilize or to change the pH if desiring to keep yet enhance a natural stand. Plants tend to germinate from spread seeds where conditions are best.

If utilizing a hillside for solar/heat improvement, make sure our actions don't promote erosion. This can be minimized by mulching as soon as practical (immediately for most bulbs and transplants, but after sprouts emerge from the soil for potatoes). Also mulch after harvest if soil is to be left unplanted over winter. Cover crops also protect from erosion, and should be planted by late august for this purpose. Sometimes that means the cover crop must be seeded as an "understory" beneath the plants we have not yet harvested such as later-harvested brassicas.

Plant residues can be left in place as a mulch as long as we are not trying to grow the same genus of vegetables in the same site the next year.


DZ: How does one propagate wild species?

JDS:  I recommend doing as much as possible the easy way, such as cutting willow, currants and gooseberry branches and just jamming them in the moist ground during the wet season. Usually they sprout just fine, but if doing it in summer, strip off the leaves so they will quit transpiring until new root hairs develop to carry the nutrients needed for photosyntheses into the plants. These are also good because they suit our climate, and will bear quickly compared to an apple or other larger plant. Raspberries can be started from a root cutting, and they bear quickly as well.

The easiest-rooted cuttings are those with softer stem tissues generally. I simply use my prunings from gooseberries and currants, placing several inches of the stem into moist soil (keep it moist until vigorous new leaf growth indicates new roots). 

Harder stems as well as soft ones can be rooted by layering....gently bend a branch or stem (sometimes this must be done in stages over several days, using a modest weight tied to a branch) until several inches can be buried and held in place by a rock. You want the actual end of each stem to be exposed so it can still photosynthesize. Over the course of a few months, tiny root hairs and then roots themselves will grow from the buried stems, as long as the soil is kept moist. When lots of roots have formed, sever the connection to the "mother" plant and on a cool, overcast day transplant to a new location. This method is an imitation of how Nature reproduces certain shrubs and vines.

Transplanting can also be done anytime in the winter that the ground is well-thawed. Plants are generally dormant in the winter and suffer less transplant shock then.

When selecting plants to work into an established ecosystem, only "push the envelope" a little at a time, bringing in things that grow naturally not too much further south or inland.

Also, try to orient any transplants the same way north and south as they were dug, by marking their north side with a ribbon or such BEFORE you dig them from their original spot.

Always imitate the way these grow in nature. Hardier seeds such as pine, crabapple and wild rose may take as much as 18 months and two cycles of chilling/freezing before the shell will release the embryo which becomes the emerging sprout.


DZ: What do you look for in a hardy domestic?

JDS:  I look for late blooming to avoid our occasional mid-may frosts, early ripening to avoid our wet and cold autumns, strong root systems for quick establishment and better survival during climactic aberrations, and a landrace to have the widest genetic pool for longevity and multiple conditions and uses.

I like varieties resistant to local mildews, fungus and diseases, and ones that bear heavy loads of tasty food. In the case of fruits such as apples and berries, sweetness is important, especially for making cider and wine. I like strong structure that withstands windstorms and the occasional volunteer pruning done by deer, elk, moose, beaver and bear. I choose plants that need minimal mechanical devices for growing and harvest.

I often research what is used in northern Europe and Asia for ideas and varieties to try here. I have found many leads by researching very old monastery records from northern and maritime Europe where growers were lucky if they could afford an ox, and even if they did, most work was done by hand. 

By the way, hand labor provides the grower/gatherer so much more detail about what is going on in their gardens and where they gather from the wild. Time and proximity are keys to the observations basic to good stewardship.


DZ: Is it possible to arrange a 'rolling' yield', so that a nomad might find something ready for harvest throughout the season?

JDS:  This might be accomplished in several ways. We extend the length of time food is available by selecting different varieties to stagger the harvest. Some broccolis are better known for fall production, others for spring/summer, and some for overwintering under heavy beachstraw mulch and turning to food in the spring.

Selecting differing plants in the same genus or family also helps.....some mustard brassicas are meant for earliest leaf use, then go to seed but return as new plants after the daylight begins to shorten. Others such as kale are steady through the season, but sweetest after a light frost. White Russian kale is always sweet, and by far the hardiest of kales.

Some plants store food underground as root crops, and some varieties of those will do that well under mulch, even during winter. Others, such as storage cabbages and giant kohlrabi varieties are suited to fall harvest and storage in a root cellar. Even many of these can be stored under mounds of seaweed or beachstraw.


DZ: How much attention is required by guerrilla gardens?

JDS:  Certain plots can last indefinitely, reseeding themselves without human intervention, although eventually Nature might supplant that with succession and climax species.

I once found a feral turnip bed at high tide line, the best EVER turnips, likely at least thirty years in that spot. That environment is where brassicas originated, so it is ideal for their perpetuation. That might be the key.

Something like grain will reseed itself in many cases, but eventually other plants move in. I once found a vetch/oat field that was probably fifty to eighty years old, from either the prior dairy operation on that island or from the over-wintering of mining mules there prior to 1920. The windborne glacial sand was relentlessly burying the old field, so other species were surviving better as the sand deepened and spread.

Many plants might maintain themselves with only minor tinkering, every few years, such as periodic weeding and thinning.


DZ:  How might weeding, thinning and culling help to improve yields?

JDS:  The Tlingits in Hoonah and environs told me their ancestors culled low-producing wild berry plants, and did some thinning for better spacing. That might also help lessen worm incidence. Many of the "thinned" plants can be transplanted to where there is more room, since the only problem they had was proximity to others.

Culling is an example of intentional selection called reverse selection, picking out the discards instead of the keepers. Just keep the most prolific plants that have the least disease and pest damage and the best fruit or other useable parts...  and weeding (removing other varieties or species in competition with the desired one).  These should be done in slightly damp soil to minimize damage to the remaining plants as well as any saved for transplanting, and the survivors should all be well-watered afterwards to ease any root-hair damage from soil disturbance.

On Prince of Wales Island, we found the best berries in the "broken" sunlight where large red cedars had been thinned out of the younger ones, allowing more light to penetrate to form sugars in the fruit.

I've seen highbush cranberries show great results from weeding of their competition. Still, I would avoid turning any patch into a very big monocrop.


DZ: What would the curve of diminishing returns look like?

JDS:  Case by case basis......no way to make a blanket prediction. Yet it is good to think in terms of a four or five year rotation ending up in a fallowed field that could either revert to trees or be worked again after several years of rest or gentle pasturing (as done naturally by bison and other grazer/browsers who have plenty of room to keep moving, dropping their fertile manure as they go).

Rotations vary as to your own food needs, but one good one is this: Potatoes on a newly cleared patch, followed by oat/pea hay or oats and soup peas for people, followed by broccoli or storable members of the cabbage family such as kohlrabi, turnips, cabbage or rutabagas. Then a crop of Cascadia snap peas for pickling for winter food as well as used off the vine, fresh, in summer and early fall, then some squash or carrots and beets.

By having several gardens you can grow each step of this rotation every year, just in different spots. Basically, the legumes bring nitrogen levels up to what is needed by the heavier, feeding crops. Seaweed, wood ash, compost and fish waste can always be added in late fall, then mulched over so the temperature of the soil remains high enough for microbes and other small critters to do the "decomposing dance" over winter. Avoid adding any woodash or lime in the year before potatoes, and no fresh manures then or just before carrots.


DZ: Are you aware of any nuts or other oil producing plants that could be raised here?

JDS:  I've often grown flax, all over southeast, and several times raised oilseed sunflowers. The nifty thing about that is that the pressed meal that remains (after cold oil extraction) makes a high-nutrient feed for chickens.

Oilseed radish should work here, and I plan on trialing it next spring, with an eye to its use in more forms than just oil. I think it is basically a daikon, but I'm not sure. One trouble with radishes I've discovered in the seed business is that while they quickly blossom and go to seed, the thick pods take FOREVER to dry off on the plant. I am actually more encouraged about the possibility of oilseed mustards, of which I have three famous varieties.

I think it's necessary to have seeds that are 25% oil content in order to make the home presses work as cold-processing.

I think this is a vital idea, because while it's possible to render fine oil/lard from black bear, it may not be suitable or acceptable for many folks, or even available some years. I have rendered a lot of very clear organic pork lard in the past, but it would almost mandate feral pigs or an established homestead. Feral pigs can be real destructive of habitat, although small, non-rooting ones are available.

This brings to mind the idea that even for TAZ or a transition to such, it might be wise to have a few tiny homestead refuges where special things are raised that might be difficult with total mobility, yet very useful. Such places might also make good sites more simple libraries, or forges, perhaps.


DZ: This is sparse gardening; Is diversity a consideration? I'm thinking of the Irish Potato Blight in which a single variety was vulnerable to a single pest.

JDS:  ALWAYS diversity should be practiced, as to variety and type of plant, as well as height, shape, weather preference, etc..

The phytopthora infestans that caused the Irish Potato Famine was able to prosper and destroy because they only grew one type of potato. A few totally or highly resistant varieties are now available, and even among those sold as resistant, some are better than others. I noticed that the fingerling Austrian Crescent often gets blight while neighboring Rose Finn Apple or Princess La Ratte fingerlings do not.

For resistance to potato scab, which is much more prevalent in our region than blight, try Red Norland, Pink Warba, Anoka, Chieftain, and Atlantic.

Yukon Gem is the much more productive descendant of the popular but low-yielding Yukon Gold. When all else is equal, I choose the varieties with earlier and heavier yields.

Gardening is, after all, a matter of survival.

*****

As mentioned, guerrilla gardens have no legal standing, and are positively proscribed in many situations.

Local laws regulate any given patch of land, public or private, but may be more or less ambiguous regarding the exact latitude allowed. Knowing the laws pertaining to your selected site is always a plus.

Low profile guerrilla gardens - virtually invisible to the casual observer - hedge your bets in questionable situations. Multiple sites not only spread the availability of harvest across a region, but also risk of crop failure, animal or human pests or legal foreclosure.

In other words, while all this is interesting stuff, it's NOT meant to be put into practice. Don't try this at home, kids!



mean it!

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Ozone Generators and Sterilization

Diagram from PrimaZone


PATHOGENS... Some dis-assembly is required.


Ozone Generators and Sterilization

Ozone (O3) is a potent toxin that works by oxidizing most anything it touches, damaging large organisms and killing smaller ones. O3 gives up one atom of 0xygen which aggressively combines with other molecules, leaving breathable O2 behind (O3 => O2 + O).


We've been using an ozone generator for several years, now, to sterilize our boat cabin and holds against various fungi including dry rot, mold and mildews. We also blow into a garbage bag to sterilize small items, now including masks, gloves and other PPE.

An advantage over UV sterilization is that it fills a space, where UV is line-of-sight and won't work in the 'shadow'.

 << Our EnerZen unit costs about $85 as I write.

A word of caution... this type of generator sterilizes the space by elevating O3 concentrations to lethal levels for a short time. No People, Plants or Pets while working and until fully aired out. Don't even want to breathe a little of it. We amateurs should probably leave the building, even if you're only doing a single room within it.

Here's a quick article that hits the main points.

There is another kind of ozone generator on the market which uses low levels of O3 to ionize particles to help purify air with people in the room. But these are not recommended by medical authorities ever, due to oxidation and irritation of airways.

If breathed in, ozone irritates, inflames and even kills cells all along the respiratory tract. This makes the cells even more susceptible to virus and bacteria, and if infected, inflammation is a serious co factor for worse outcomes. 'Safe' levels for O3 can be understood as merely 'negligible damage' for normal times.

Incidentally, ozone also clears away smells such as as smoke, decay, locker funk, diesel or gas, wet dog, bilge, etc..

Pretty handy tool in a pandemic.


NOTE: Most hospitals have ozone generators for sterilizing operating and patient rooms. PPEs can be treated for re-use in room-sized batches. Please help spread the word.


Sunday, April 8, 2018

Gypsy Rules for Survival

Cruising Live-Aboards

 The sky became their canopy
The earth became their throne
And as their raiment ran to rags
They thought it nothing wrong
For earth and sky are robe enough
When you sing the Gypsy Song.

-- From Beggars to God by Bob Franke


Gypsy Rules for the Survival

The term Gypsy - our outsider's name for the Romani peoples - stirs in settled folk a feeling of nostalgia and sometimes unease. Nostalgia for their own, lost, nomadic past, whether real or imagined. Unease from xenophobia - fear of the stranger. As a consequence, the Rom have had to navigate many hostile centuries, yet largely kept their identity and cultures intact.

Live-aboards and shanty dwellers have much in common with them, to the point that we often share the Gypsy moniker. We too are mobile among those who would prefer to see us settled down. We too often have more in common among ourselves than with those ashore. We too live along a fringe; in the cracks, as it were.

The following Gypsy tips, or rules for survival/thrival appeared in a post by Ugo Bardi, plus a few gleaned elsewhere. I'll start with the bare list, which I've paraphrased, generalized, rearranged and loosely grouped in triads, then take them one by one. They're presented as 'rules', but consider them advice...


Be yourself.
Cultivate a free spirit.
Family First.

Protect your privacy.
Blow smoke.
Never stand and fight.

Stay mobile.
Live light, travel light.
Seize opportunity.

Cultivate know-how.
Minimize overheads.
Waste not.


*****


Okay... let's unpack 'em a bit:

Be Yourself

BE yourself! Don't yield to conformity. Homogeneity. The pressure to be like everyone else. To blend in. We are each of us unique in all the world. In all the Universe. Don't trade that away for love nor money!

To do so is to impoverish both ourselves and the world.


Cultivate a Free Spirit

Dance, sing, celebrate, make love! Never lose sight of the joy of living.

It's what makes it all worthwhile. What makes living more than mere survival.


Family First

Our family - be it your partner, your children, your kin or your tribe - are our first priority. our Family is our strength and well-being.

Invest yourself in them and theirs.




Protect your Privacy

Lots of folks are curious about how we live. But be cagey about what you tell whom. Not all of those interested are your friends. Detail can be used against you as gossip, rumor or as a pretext for official action.

Loose lips sink ships!


Blow Smoke

Mis-direction and mis-representation have their place, especially when dealing with officialdom. We want to appear as though we fit within the boxes on their forms, whether or not we do. We want to appear more settled and 'legit' than in fact we are.

Smoke and mirrors, my friends.


Never Stand and Fight

When in danger, when in doubt, hoist your sails and bugger out!  - Tristan Jones

Those dedicated to keeping freedom freedom-free tend to have the upper hand. To fight them is at best a full time job. At worst a losing proposition.

This is not to say that we shouldn't give due process a chance. But standing on principle come-what-may is a good way to lose our home, freedom and possibly more.

Consider moving along before push comes to shove.




Stay Mobile

Mobility has us ready to roll on a moment's notice. Extends our range of options and access to resources. Keeps us fresh in outlook. With mobility, we are not bound to the misfortunes of one place. Nor must we suffer a bad neighbor.

If not mobile, we are sitting ducks.


Live Light, Travel Light

Don't you carry nuthin' that might be a load. Ease on down, ease on down the road. - The Wiz

To live and travel lightly keeps us focused on essentials. This good advice has been passed on from the most ancient of Wise Ones to the most successful of present-day sailors.

Take what ya need and leave the rest.


Seize Opportunity

Make the most of good fortune. Recognize the Opportune Moment. Act decisively when a windfall comes your way.

Strike while the iron is hot!





Cultivate Know-How

DIY maintains our independence. Knowledge is portable, cannot be taken from us and makes us intrinsically valuable to others. What we can do is stock-in-trade.


Minimize Overheads

Overheads eat away at our substance. While we can never eliminate them entirely, we can keep them low.

The lower our overheads, the greater the return on any investment. The greater our freedom.

A penny saved is a penny earned.


Waste Not

We want to make full use of what we've acquired at cost. We often want to make full use of what others have neglected or abandoned.

Recycle, reuse, repurpose.

Thrifty does it...


*****


So there you have 'em. Rules for the Road from those who've been traveling a long time gone.

Like most advice of this nature, they're for our consideration. Take 'em or leave 'em. Adapt them to our unique situation. Add to them from any source we deem fit...

And ease on down the Road.







PS. Here are the original rules from Ugo Bardi's post, Survival Tips from the Gypsies, in order presented:
  1. In battle, the best strategy is flight.
  2. Don't carry and don't use weapons.
  3. Cherish your mobility.
  4. Travel light in life.
  5. Cultivate creative obfuscation.
  6. A man's family is his refuge.
  7. What you learned to do yourself, can never be stolen.
  8. Catch the occasion when you see it 
  9. Be jealous of your identity.
  10. Be a free spirit.
Note:  I skipped number two in the preceding post. Definitely a point to consider seriously. It may be somewhat more context dependent than the others? Certainly, the use of a firearm against a human being is a choice fraught with consequence, however justified one may feel.

Monday, February 20, 2017

The Half Urban World for Doomies



Rapid globalization and economic conditions will continue to produce increasing uncertainties and risks, as well as new opportunities that will impact all phases of urbanization—often with unanticipated consequences. As a result, uncertainty must be a critical component of planning and policymaking. Economic uncertainty must be taken into consideration when new and innovative projects are developed to ensure that they are “successful” in local and global terms, and better equipped to withstand fluctuations in local and global economies.


-- From Urban Policy in an Uncertain Economy by the East-West Center


The Half Urban World for Doomies

(Roughly rounded terms, ahead. Original numbers gleaned from UN, IMF and World Bank sources ...)
  • About 10,000 years back, agricultural civilizations first arose. From that time through the 1700s, it took from 95 to 98 persons actively engaged in farming to support 100 people; themselves and 2 to 5 non-farmers. Today - leveraged via modern, industrial technologies heavily reliant on fossil fuels - 2 to 5 farmers support 100 people when averaged worldwide.
  • In recent decades, lean production and inventory philosophy (Just In Time or JIT production and supply) has become widespread. This means inventories of supplies on hand are kept to a minimum. In the case of urban centers in the U.S., food vendors and local warehouses are stocked on average to supply only two to three days of normal demand.
  • A few years back, we passed the Half-Urban World mark. This means that more than half of us now live in urban concentrations of 2000 or more people. Current world population about 7,500,000,000 souls.
Each dot is a point along one of several exponential curves -seldom related - each of which now describes rapid, dramatic change.

Each development, in itself seems just another historical milestone on our road to the stars. Each a symbol of progress marking our advance as a species.

Taken together, they comprise an unprecedented recipe for disaster.

What we see is a situation in which an otherwise short-lived cessation of urban supply is going to have drastic consequences for urban populations who, in their desperation, will damage critical infrastructure beyond hope of recovery.

Supply chain failure essentially stops most food production in its tracks. Without steady inputs of seedstocks, fertilizers, feed, fuels, parts and manpower, production and distribution grind to a halt, with a horizon of the next planting/harvest cycle. Irrigated areas would soon lose water, as would many reliant on pumped ground and aquifer waters. No markets or transport, no point in harvest even where possible. Livestock would be put down as feed on hand is exhausted, saving only what can be pasture fed.

The hundred fed by each one or two farmers would go hungry, even if some emergency transport were arranged.

What follows is my best guess as to how this might play out on a near global scale. There will be many variations, especially among towns set in low density, rural areas. Size and local food production industries may follow a different course. Third world urban areas may have better local supply, but tend to be high density.

Stage One: Urban Implosion

This plays out much as collapse fiction portrays it. Panic, food riots, collapse of utilities and services, overwhelmed police and emergency services, emergence of gangs controlling resources and black market trade.

What is often overlooked, I believe is damage to urban infrastructures, including many which are vital to service extra-urban regions. Rioting, fire and looting can easily damage power and water stations and conduits, telecommunications, fuel storage, computer networks, railway and general equipment. Experienced, irreplaceable personnel will not be able to commute, abandon their stations to protect their families, and/or be lost to violence.

In fairly short order, without resupply, resources on hand will be exhausted or hoarded out of reach of many to most.

Stage Two: Urban Explosion

Individuals and small groups must at some point decide to abandon the city in search of food. Water and shelter will be of constant concern.

Likely, roads will be beset by 'highwaymen', exacting a toll of refugees.

Surrounding suburban areas, where present, will have their own pitfalls and dynamics, both for residents and for the refugees flowing out of the cities. Food here will likely have been exhausted or corralled as well. Their mere extant along with attrition from violence will cut into refugee numbers. Never the less, I expect many (hundreds to millions, depending on initial population) will reach the rural surrounds.

Stage Three: 'Locust' Behaviors Threaten Rural Populations

By this time, people will be desperate and ravenous. Every animal, grain, food or material deemed edible will be consumed. Every rumor that can be pursued will be, as mobs large and small pour through the countryside.

In particular, gardens will be uprooted and seedstock consumed. 

At some point, cannibalism becomes inevitable.

EROEI Energy Return On Energy Invested), I believe, will play a large role in this phase. Pillaging individuals and groups must achieve a net return, or they starve out. Dense or concentrated resources may support larger groups organized as bandits or raiders, but these will deplete quickly. Low density or well hidden resources will not, and any bandits straying into these areas will burn out.

It is an open question as to whether ex-urban mobs will topple rural societies, which will have problems of their own when supply fails. Clearly, initial urban numbers will be well down. Rural populations will diminish, but likely not to the proportional degree as urbogenic ones. They will also have intimate local knowledge on their side. It may be that some can hold out and retain social cohesion.

In this stage, something I think of as Demographic Winter (analogous to Nuclear Winter) seems possible. Large numbers of ex-urbanites burn what they can for warmth and cooking. Some percentage will get out of hand in uncontrolled forest and prairie fires. Globally. Smoke produced will likely have climate scale consequences for some time, further stressing survivors.
Stage Four: Forage, Gardening? and Husbandry?

Sooner or later, the population much reduced, small bands will begin to relearn wild forage and hunting technologies.

Limited gardening may begin as non-hybrid seed caches are discovered, and growth propagated from those which escape being eaten. Hybridized cloned varieties may survive for propagation in this phase, as well, so long as they are not overly dependent for success on insecticides and other industrial measures.

Livestock may be propagated. Most draft animal technologies as well.

But propagation of skills, plant- or animal stocks, takes time.

Of course, somewhere in here, domestic nuclear plants and spent rod storage facilities go LOCA.

Stage Four: Return to Organic Agriculture?

Assuming our species makes it this far, methods of organic agriculture, if it happens at all, will have to restore what is remembered and reinvent much that has been lost, under conditions of changed climate.

My guess is that this stage is unlikely. That we will not return to agriculture in any near future (millennial scale), and will likely have to rediscover it by the time we do.

But most of human experience did without it, and by some estimations, were better off before its adoption transformed us.


*****

Are full economic and urban collapse  plausible? And if so, are these dynamics likely?

If we are indeed approaching the limits to growth (see this blog's header), the conditions underlying the capital-based, global industrial economy. Events over the last 45 years are in high conformity with that hypothesis. We have seen the depicted curves flattening, with the model suggesting the dropside is nearly on us. Should a tipping point initiate cascading failures which outstrip capacity to halt them, ensuing collapse may well be catastrophic.

Global economic collapse is entirely conceivable to the IMF, World Bank and central bankers at national and international levels. Crushing global debt (national, corporate, individual), fiat currencies weakened by quantitative easing, non-productive spending (e.g., military), wealth disparity, rising cost of insurance, unstable business environment... and under it all plummeting EROEI on fossil fuels... are seen individually as potential threats to the global economy. Collectively, they are ominous indeed. Notice that growth within a limited system is not appreciably on their radar.

Global supply chain cessation would be the natural result of economic collapse (arrest). Again, there are many historical cases of financial breakdown leading to supply interruption. Typically, these have been short lived as support arrived, originating from stable surrounds.

Are tools available sufficient to restore confidence and restart interrupted global trade in a time to avert runaway, systemic failures (of which urban collapse is an example)? It's a matter of debate, but the very concept of 'too big to fail' implies that failure is not an option since it brings down the house. Once something big gives, it may well be that issues multiply faster than they can be brought under control.

There have been many historical examples of dramatic urban collapse due to war (especially siege), local economic collapse or natural disaster. Most of them follow stages one through three to some degree. Deviations appear to be more or less proportional to how much outside supply and assistance they receive, and how soon 'normalcy' is restored. How well the general population is armed plays a role. Long duration and/or lack of significant outside assistance makes the worst case the probable case.

Should supply chains fail, military and National Guard assets, running on strategic reserves, may attempt to run stopgap supply services. But the task will be enormous, and efforts diluted by attempts to establish order and control. Personnel will be difficult to keep on task as they go AWOL in support of families, taking what they can get away with. Most assets will be stranded overseas.

To my mind, the combination of low on hand inventories, food producer to consumer ratio and staggering numbers of the people involved and the high aspect ratio of critical dependencies in service infrastructures mean that we are in uncharted territory. 

That the transition from functional to desperate can proceed in remarkably short order. 
That urban breakdown will not be confined within urban city limits.
That the infrastructures necessary for restoration of function can be damaged beyond repair.
That rapid population loss - both urban and rural - can be catastrophic.

In a scenario of global economic arrest, extrapolate outward, demographic explosion from every urban center, world wide. Looking at a map, the world appears a minefield..


*****

In regard to the rural vs. urban bug-out debate, the preceding considerations suggest that rural wins hands down.

Urban areas, producing no significant foods from their own ground must be abandoned. Sooner or later, survivors will bug out rural. Those already rural will be ahead of them.

A further observation is that, the farther one is from urban concentrations, the better, lest the locust phase sweep over your position.

My advice? Relocate rural, now.

Git while the gittin's good.





PS. I searched the terms "half urban world" collapse in several variations looking for serious, non-fiction analyses, and found little to nothing (mostly my own, amateur efforts!).

I would welcome serious consideration of global urban collapse dynamics by anyone who's guesses might be better informed and referenced than my own.

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

How Systems Collapse: Human Body Analogy




 
...Slowly, at first, then all at once.
-- Dmitry Orlov


How Systems Collapse: The Human Body Analogy

I would say that most persons who entertain the notion of Collapse picture some version of Slow Collapse. Aka Catabolic Collapse aka the Long Descent.

Those of us who foresee Fast Collapse appear to be a distinct minority.

I read on-line that many cannot imagine the complete failure of a system as vast and complex as the Global Industrial Economy, along with its embedded Global Civilization. It seems too big to fail. They will not let it collapse!

Here to help you imagine is the example of the Human Body, a vast (trillions of cells), highly evolved, Complex Adaptive System.

Our human body is as familiar to us as...  well... as the back of our own hand. That it ages, suffers illness and trauma, wears out important parts... none of this surprises us. That the body is mortal is dead certain.

Bodily systems typically decline over years in a process one might think of as Slow Collapse. Arteries harden. Muscle mass is lost. Bones weaken. The mind's reach shortens. Whether one is a Yogic Master or couch potato, age takes its toll. Decline may be faster or slower, but it is relentless. We may suffer deficits or enjoy partial recoveries, but from conception, entropy holds us in its dissipating grip.

Illness or trauma can degrade or damage particular limbs, organs or systems. Our immune, digestive, cardio-pulmonary, neurological systems – to name a few – can slow and stutter.

We are borne in stages toward our final crisis.

The eventual mechanism of our demise is uncertain, but the prognosis is not. Sooner or later, some break-down – large or small – will abruptly escalate to total system failure. Whether from a state of good health or struggling with diminished function, when the crisis comes, our system is tipped from being a massively intricate, integrated, living body, to a collection of dis-integrated cells dying in isolation.

For example, cardiac collapse begins with a small system failure (blood supply, electrical signal, valve failure, etc.). Once the 'pump' stops, blood is neither oxygenated nor distributed throughout the body. Cellular waste products are neither transported nor processed. Even with CPR, the system is going downhill fast. Organs, dependent on the heart's function, degrade or fail. Bodily elements, dependent on those organs degrade and fail.

Without prompt, correct, decisive intervention (and most often even with that advantage), the patient undergoes Fast Collapse.

TEOTWAKI.

There are many ways to come to terms with mortality. Seize the day. Eat, drink and be merry. Reach out in love to those around us. Far from paralyzing us, the prospect of our personal finitude can be a catalyst to live. And so might it be with global Collapse of Civilization. The fact of mortality itself needn't lead us to throw in the towel.

Point is, we're all too familiar with Fast Collapse in highly evolved, complex adaptive systems.

In terms of the human body, we understand the mechanisms of collapse far better than its workings. In terms of the industrial economy, we understand neither, for all our economic theory. What we do understand of systems is that they can be driven out of their range of stability, and become vulnerable to catastrophic collapse.

Fast Collapse is not simply some pessimistic, Doomerish nay say, per se, to be dismissed with the lifting of a skeptical brow. It's not Schadenfreude, delighting in Goetterdeamerung. It's not even a narrative, competing with others for prime time. Instead, it is an argument based on the doings and undoings of complex adaptive systems.

The prime mission of this blog is to lay out that systems theoretic argument in an accessible manner. To that end, I'll be presenting Systems Theory for Doomies in following posts, along with renditions of the major, systems based arguments supporting Fast Collapse.

And why?

Fast Collapse calls for very different preparation measures than does Slow Collapse. While no preparation guarantees success; no preparation might very well guarantee failure.

Go not gently into that good night!


Friday, December 16, 2016

Pascal's Wager, Adapted for Prepperation

Calvin's Wager
by Bill Watterson

Yes; but you must wager. It is not optional. You are embarked. Which will you choose then?
-- From Pensees by Blaise Pascal

To make a choice is to change the future.
-- Deepak Chopra


Pascal's Wager, Adapted for Prepperation

Blaise Pascal considered the question of how a rational person, in the absence of proof, should wager (bet) with respect to God's existence. It is an early example of decision theory.

Paraphrased (and stripped to bare bones), the argument runs like this:
If God does not exist, belief in Him costs one little.
If God does exist, disbelief costs one much.
Therefore,  it is rational to wager that He does exist, and act accordingly.

Let's restate that in terms of Collapse:
If Collapse is not coming, preparation costs one little.
If Collapse is coming, lack of preparation costs one much.
Therefore, it is rational to wager that Collapse is coming, and prepare accordingly.

Wanna bet?


Thursday, December 8, 2016

Fast or Slow Collapse: Why it Matters

The Days of Wind
by Qin YongJun


Slowly, at first, then all at once.
-- Dmitry Orlov on Fragility and Collapse


Fast or Slow Collapse: Why it Matters


Fast and slow are relative terms.

From the perspective of centuries and relative to its duration, the fall of the Roman Empire was relatively abrupt. From the perspective of individuals involved, however, many experienced little change in the course of their lifetimes. It was a Long Descent from the peak of its expansion, through crises and contractions to the Dark Age that followed.

When we contemplate the Collapse of the modern global economy with so much that it entails, many are persuaded that it will be a similar, Long Descent, declining catabolically in fits and spurts over generations, in keeping with most known historical precedent.

Fast Collapse types (myself included) are persuaded that descent will likely be abrupt on our time scale, crashing catastrophically from near peak to near zero in the course of days to months.

Why does this matter? Why isn't it a genteel debate whose outcome will become clear in time... the loser will stand the next round of beer? Why shouldn't we just wait and see?

My answer is that the two scenarios call for vastly different preparations, and on a very different deadline.

If the Long Descent lies ahead of us, our best bet is to establish locally resilient communities, capable of carrying forward in reduced circumstances. The learning curve is relatively gradual for dealing with the economic environment as it (d)evolves. For most, there will be world enough, and time.

But should Catastrophic Collapse be the case, we are more or less flung onto our own resources, struggling amid all others mired in a fully similar plight, minus any functional economy at all.

I present two analogies for slow and fast Collapse, respectively. They are imperfect but illustrate the different preparations which would be important.

Here's an analogy for Slow, Catabolic Collapse:
The TITANIC strikes an island and goes hard aground. The lower hull is flooded and many of the ships stores are ruined, but there is no immediate risk of sinking. The generators go down, and with it many of the ship's systems. But most crew and passenger decks are clear of water. Passengers, while dazed, turn to and begin to work with crew to aid the injured, ensure dry shelter for those impacted and ration supplies. They do best who have good relationships with others aboard - both socially and those with skills. Eventually, some power may be restored and longer term plans undertaken. And so on. But the island has limited resources... things will get worse before they get better.

And one for Fast, Catastrophic Collapse:
The TITANIC strikes an iceberg and sinks within hours. There are no lifeboats (preparations are the responsibility of individuals). Most flounder in the water with a very brief window of survival. Many are drowned by their panicked, desperate neighbors who attempt anything to live. Some had prepared for this emergency, as best the could. Of these, many don't make it; pulled down by the floundering masses. Some fail due to poor choices. A few, thanks to adequate preparation and good fortune survive the immediate disaster. And so on. But they are now adrift among many resources (analogy breaks down, here) but with little to no hope of assistance.

I'm not going to argue, here, for Fast Collapse, though that is my persistent conclusion. But once Collapse begins in earnest one's choices may be tightly constrained. In the face of Fast Collapse, a 'wait and see' approach is likely to become 'waited too long'.

I urge that deciding which scenario is ahead/immanent, and acting upon that decision is a matter of life and death for you and yours. To wait and see is to have made a decision.

A last observation, however... preparations for Slow Collapse do not address Fast concerns, but those for Fast Collapse perform valuable service in many likely Slow scenarios. Even if never called upon, these do no harm. They are like fire escapes which may never be used...

...But you're gonna want 'em once all hell breaks loose.





PS.  This may be the place to mention that I often hear a cheap kind of psycho-analysis speculating on why people conclude whether fast, slow, or indeed any Collapse is probable.We all assess what facts we can, relate them, and attempt predictions to the best of our ability.

Those persuaded that Collapse is likely don't glory in it. Fast Collapse folks don't want to avoid a long, arduous Descent. Slow Collapse folks don't wish to avoid a traumatic, desperate Catastrophe.

I mean, isn't the Future hard enough to contemplate without second guessing motives?

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Tweeting the Future: Thoughts toward Launching a Meme

Book or tree of knowledge concept with an oak tree growing from
Seeding a Tree of Knowledge




Where once there was a void,
Now at least there are
Seeds of splendor,
Becalmed belief for another time.
 by Scott Hastie


Tweeting the Future: Thoughts toward Launching a Meme

Okay. So let's assume it's going down hard with a long, dark age ahead, on the order of centuries to millennia. Let's say we want to send a message to our descendants, if any. How might we send it, and what might we say?

Given that high tech media are not likely to survive, we're stuck with lower tech options:
  • Social trasmission (institutional, hermetic, tribal, ???)
  • Focused oral tradition (memorized) -- (songs, poems, stories, ???)
  • The written word (engravings, impressions, durable books, ???)
  • All of the above

In all cases, I consider it useful to think in terms of memes, ideas which are 'copied' in one or more media (including human mind and society). I'll speak of our message as a single meme, but it is more likely to be a set of memes.

A meme's success, per se, is determined by:
  • Fecundity (high rate of copies) – Tell all your friends! Tell them now! Get them to do the same!
  • Fidelity (accuracy with which it is copied) – Hi fidelity gets a message across, while low fidelity soon drifts from its intent (think the game of Rumor aka Telephone).
  • Longevity (how long the meme is able to generate copies) – We're still reading the Epic of Gilgamesh and the Code of Hammurabi.

So how might we maximize the odds? Do we send out the naked meme as a podcast and hope it takes? Do we manipulate the message for better transmission? Or even 'encapsulate' it in a vessel (a book, say), that itself contributes to transmission? Or hitch-hike on an already successful tradition? Do we establish a medium, such as a hermetic sect?

My thoughts are evolving along these lines:
  • The message should be fashioned concisely in 'scriptural', poetic language using simple, non-technical language. Prose? A poem? A song (the tune of Greensleeves is an ancient, musical meme)?
  • It should be inspirational, and at best, useful (possibly as a teaching tool or mnemonic) during transition, both currently and in the midst of a dark age.
  • It should be written in durable, portable book form, and also inscribed in stone and/or impressed in fired clay (or equivalent).
  • Publication, distribution, memorization, transmission and discussion should be encouraged from the outset.

Scriptures are a tried-and-true method for bringing a body of information through difficult times with good fidelity. They replicate through both written and focused oral traditions, and are abetted by diffuse oral traditions (e.g., schools of propagation, discussion and debate). The feeling of higher purpose associated with scripture improves fecundity and fidelity.

If it is beautifully and compellingly written, it is more likely to have high fecundity. Especially so if it is inspirational and/or useful to persons immersed in a dark age. These should be goals at the composition stage.

Concision is a virtue on all fronts... being shorter, it requires less mental and physical resources for copying (improved fecundity), and is less likely to incur copy errors (fidelity). If it is more often copied into smaller, relatively portable physical media, longevity is enhanced.

Physical media which are both durable and beautifully crafted increase longevity. Holy books which are beautifully bound and illuminated are valuable property simply as objects, protected and treasured regardless of belief in their contents. Many have survived for centuries.

So let's look at some content/format possibilities...

Richard Feynman proposed this single, ingenious sentence, which 'unfolds', under careful inquiry, to yield all of physics (with all other hard sciences implied):

...All things are made of atoms – little particles that move around in perpetual motion, attracting each other when they are a little apart, but repelling on being squeezed into one another.”

This sentence is deliberately NOT fashioned in compliance with current, scientific consensus in which 'Quantum fields' have supplanted 'Atomic particles'. But not-yet scientists starting from this sentence, have a good shot at figuring out quantum fields on their own, in time. The goal is not up-to-the-minute accuracy, but to provide an accessible starting point to an inquiring mind.

James Lovelock proposed a compendium in clear, unambiguous language, preserving all our knowledge, A Book for All Seasons. Obviously, this would be a BIG book.

Each has transmission liabilities.

Clearly, a tome is not concise, and loses all the advantages of concision. If we wished to transmit our modern knowledge base, memorization – or even understanding the whole – would be out of the question. Few of today's specialists can fully master more than even two fields of knowledge. What's more, the effort of composition and subsequent production would be immense, far beyond the reach of small fry.

A single sentence is more attractive, to me. It is ultra in most of the virtues; ultra-portable, transcribable, easily memorized even by the young. It's a little clunky, however. I suppose it could be written as a limerick?

All things are made out of bits
That whiz non-stop in a blitz.
Apart by a fraction,
They feel an attraction.
But push 'em together, they splits.

Surely you're joking, Mr. Feynman!

Here's a an attempt to mimic successful, albeit less mnemonic forms...


Thus spake St. Feynman
in the Age of Legend:

All things compose of tiny bits;
atoms dancing without cease

Faster when warmed
Slower when cooled
Heat is tempo

Near, they attract
thrust close, repel

To observe the dance
is to change the dance”

Hear ye the seed of all knowledge!
Sow, and ye shall reap.


There... some poetic license and a hint of quantum physics. An improvement on St. Liebowitz, but still not exactly catchy. Is there a poet in the house?

Wisdom is tougher nut to crack. Its more vague and koan-ish, so is harder to unfold?. Subject to contention, too. But even among religions, Feynman's approach applies. Here's Jesus of Nazareth's summary of Judaism (arranged from KJV)...

This is the first and great commandment:

Thou shalt love the Lord thy God
with all thy heart,
and with all thy soul,
and with all thy mind.
And the second is like unto it;

Thou shalt love thy neighbor as thyself.

On these two commandments
hang all the law and the prophets.


Guatama Bhudda may win the brevity prize, summing his teachings with “Release all attachment.” 

Point is, the concept isn't new, and we have some authorities to consult.

The problem with too much brevity is that, as a vehicle, it has low inertia. Why would a slave in the seventh year of the Warlord Vog pass this on? For that matter, would Vog or his flunkies - who might wish at least to appear wise - pass it on?

It seems to me that, for all its genius, Feynman's sentence or its variants, would have near zero fecundity. The Bhudda's may make it as one meme within an already successful meme set, but that hardly needs our help.

Even among my fellow geek friends, it gains no traction. If they've heard of it they love the idea, but none have managed to learn it by heart. They're hard pressed to remember its important features, despite that they're conversant with the principles. To someone marooned in a dark age, it would be useless and inscrutable blither. If printed on a waterproof card, it would be of better use to patch the roof.

But I think the approach is a good one.

Every line, verse or stanza – each the seed of a whole line of inquiry – would ease the task of those who follow. Each would confer useful knowledge from the very first steps along the path. And with a longer poem or shorter book, there's room to improve the hints, and build one upon the next.

I believe there is a threshold of critical mass, where mere weight of words gain enough gravitas to capture imagination, appealling at any stage of knowledge. They could gain the allure of a gnostinomikon; a book of knowledge, backed by actual science, to shame the grimoires of the past. Every mage who approached would be started on a true path.

Think what a smattering of infection theory might have done for those in a time of cholera? A few, trustworthy and select words to the wise would be invaluable. Only to read that there are miniscule, living creatures which can carry disease by contact, inhalation or ingestion... it doesn't take a medical genius to get from there to patient isolation, or to check the water supply, or to wash hands and dressings.

The scientific method itself -- our greatest invention -- can be drawn in a few words, and guide through the worlds of knowledge. (“Our greatest invention” from Lewis Dartnell). Scientific method, math and logic, physics, mechanics, chemistry, evolution, ecosystemics, economics, politics. All these in seed form.

With such a book in their hands, the great minds which inhabit all times would be put onto the scent, passing at a run the cold, blind trails of ignorance...

...on their way to Renaissance.

***


PS. There's a dark possibility to such a project. It may be that we'd be passing them a poison pill. The jury is still out on whether ours is the best of times or the worst of times. Without hard won wisdom to accompany the power this meme would carry, it might be like passing a live grenade to a baby.