The above graph is adapted from Limits to Growth, Revisited. It is not a hard and fast prediction, but rather the product of a model with 40 years of high correspondence with developments. We are, at present, at the top of the growth curves, many of which have already begun to plateau. Slopes of decline do not factor in such worst-case scenarios as widespread urban- or domestic nuclear facilities collapse consequent to economic collapse.

I've added the shading and 'crossover' circle' (coincident with 'peak everything') to indicate my best guess as to the high probablility zone for global, economic collapse, triggering the onset of TEOTWAWKI.

I fear a hard landing... no 'reboot' or 'transition' to a lower functioning economy. I urge high priority preparation now.

I've got a short glossary of terms at the bottom of this page... if you come across an unfamiliar term, please scroll down and check it out.

Information I'm including or pointing to doesn't mean I necessarily agree with it. Rather, I've found it to be stimulating and worthy of consideration. I'm sure you'll exercise your own judgement... we're nothing if not independent! 8)

Sunday, February 2, 2014

David Holmgren's Unstated Assumptions of "Business as Usual"

The following assumptions are reposted from David Holmgren's FutureScenarios.org. They amount to a checklist of necessary requirements for the continuation of TWAWKI.

 

The Unstated Assumptions of “Business as Usual”

At a more pragmatic and immediate scale, the reasons for the faith in future growth are rarely articulated but can be summarized by a few common assumptions that seem to lie behind most public documents and discussion of the future. 

These do not represent specific or even recognized views of particular academics, corporate leaders or politicians but more society wide assumptions that are generally left unstated. 

  • Global extraction rates of important non-renewable commodities will continue to rise.


  • There will be no peaks and declines other than through high energy substitution such as the historical transitions from wood to coal and from coal to oil.

  • Economic activity, globalization and increases in technological complexity will continue to grow.

  • The geopolitical order that established the USA as the dominant superpower may evolve and change but will not be subject to any precipitous collapse such as happened to the Soviet Union.

  • Climate change will be marginal or slow in its impacts on human systems, such that adaption will not necessitate changes in the basic organization of society.

  • Household and community economies and social capacity will continue to shrink in both their scope and importance to society.

All of these assumptions are based on projections of past trends extending back over a human lifetime and drawing more broadly on patterns that can be traced to the origins of industrial civilization and capitalism in Europe hundreds of years ago. 

Simply exposing these assumptions makes it clear how weak the foundations are for any planned response to the issue of energy transitions. 

Being more transparent about our assumptions becomes essential in times of turbulent change and historical transition if our aim is to empower personal and community action.
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