The above graph is adapted from Limits to Growth, Revisited. It is not a hard and fast prediction, but rather the product of a model with 40 years of high correspondence with developments. We are, at present, at the top of the growth curves, many of which have already begun to plateau. Slopes of decline do not factor in such worst-case scenarios as widespread urban- or domestic nuclear facilities collapse consequent to economic collapse.

I've added the shading and 'crossover' circle' (coincident with 'peak everything') to indicate my best guess as to the high probablility zone for global, economic collapse, triggering the onset of TEOTWAWKI.

I fear a hard landing... no 'reboot' or 'transition' to a lower functioning economy. I urge high priority preparation now.

I've got a short glossary of terms at the bottom of this page... if you come across an unfamiliar term, please scroll down and check it out.

Information I'm including or pointing to doesn't mean I necessarily agree with it. Rather, I've found it to be stimulating and worthy of consideration. I'm sure you'll exercise your own judgement... we're nothing if not independent! 8)

Saturday, March 3, 2012


I can't tell you how many times I've spent an afternoon in ernest conversation with one or more persons who think TEOTWAWKI is a crock, only to have them turn at the last minute and say:

But isn't it selfish to prepare for yourself and let those around you perish?

LET them perish???

Here's an analogy from the TITANIC. They hit an iceberg. Everyone felt tremors, but most had ways of explaining them away. Rumors and indicators began to circulate, but the officers denied them and soothed fears. Those urging action, or at least investigation were condescended to as alarmist. Once the deck started to tilt, however things changed. Rather quickly.

There was one guy, though; a cook.

He took early, reasoned and decisive steps. Among them, he smeared himself with lard. Man's a genius! He passed out lifejackets, emptied flour drums and threw them, furniture, and any floatables he could find over the side. He analyzed the coming events and stationed himself at the last point to go under when the Great Ship went down, preserving his body's heat as long as possible and minimizing the jump distance when he finally abandoned ship.

He survived, as did a number of those clinging to his jetsam. Man's a hero.

So who was it this guy let perish? Were the hundreds who drowned or succumbed to hypothermia his to save or let die? No. Might some of them have lived if they, too, had taken steps? Undoubtedly. Did some survive thanks to his efforts? Yes.

We can't force people to recognize a threat, much less to prepare for it. In keeping with our metaphor we can try to explain that there are not enough lifeboats, that we're in iceberg waters, that we're going too fast in the dark, that there's one, now, dead ahead!

We can only attempt to educate and persuade. We can do the math, show the graphs and answer emotion with reason. That is the best we can do for them.

We can spread the alarm. Point out that the Unsinkable Ship is, in fact sinking. We can attempt the moral and social equivalent of passing out life-preservers, and urging that they be donned. Toss furniture. Give swimming lessons.

But when we abandon ship, board a lifeboat of our own crafting and provisioning, to face seas perilous in their own right... my guess is you'd better row away from that sinking ship. Hopefully in company with others who heeded the rising waters.

Their question, "Isn't it selfish...?", is a portent of the future.

When the ship is sinking or sunk, those same people, now desperately treading water, will look to you in your slim margin of safety, and they will cry, "Behold the Selfish Ones! Why should they live at our expense?"

And they will swim to us, if they are able, and grapple aboard, and sink us, one and all.

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Hey Folks... I'm not in a position to moderate comments. If discussion remains respectful and on topic, I welcome comments (passion okay). If it spins out of control, I'll have disallow them... I thank you for your civility.

I've opened comments to all 'Registered Users' (whatever that means!) to help weed out pesky spam.

- Dave Z