Hell, before the War we was all
organic farmers.
-- Overheard between
two elder farmers in the 1960s
Forgetting
How to Farm
One of the themes I yammer on about,
here, is that things are different this time... that history
is not a reliable guide for the collapse of modern civilization. And
forgetting how to farm is one of the main reasons I believe
this to be so.
I stipulate that more food is being
produced, today, by fewer people than ever before in human history.
Furthermore, I accept that modern transport and preservation
technologies help maximize distribution and minimize scarcity.
So how, you may ask, can I argue that
we have forgotten how to farm?
In a very real sense, human agriculture
and animal husbandry are new on the scene. As homo sapiens we
have only been farming for a tiny fraction of our existence.
Nevertheless, some thousand generations hammered out their ways and
means.
Only in the last eight millennia – a
mere slice of deep time – did civilizational farming emerge. At
first confined to flood plains and favored pockets. Later irrigated
by labor and mechanical means. The horse harnessed and the plow
perfected. Cultivars developed and breeds bred. Crop regimens and
rotations increased yield. A host of supplementary technologies
sprouted alongside, gradually improving the efficacy of farming
within the budgets of sun and land (though not always the case).
And we thrived on its abundance. Our
numbers grew in steady, exponential increase. Malthus famously
plotted population growth versus the growth of food production and
(correctly) warned of famine if trends continued.
Also famously, they did not. The
discovery of the New World and its crops (especially potato and maize
(corn)) and nitrate deposits bought some breathing room. The
Industrial Revolution and fossil fuels brought new, mechanical muscle
to the land. Dams and deep well technology allowed irrigation far
from surface water tables. Chemistry brought pest- and herbicides
and, best of all, the means to liberate vital nitrogen from the
atmosphere.
And now, monoculture, 'marketable'
hybrids, GMOs (Genetically Modified Organisms), slash-and-burn
practices and other profit accelerants are displacing ever more
traditional varieties.
What could possibly go wrong?
Well... there are costs. Arable acreage
lost to 'development'. Topsoil loss and salination. Accumulating
toxins in soil and environment. Fresh water and aquifer depletion and
pollution. Evolving resistance among pests and infectious agents. New
diseases leaping via crowded domesticated species to ourselves.
Climate impacts. Ecosystem infringement and collapses. Our own
burgeoning numbers as other species fade and fail. Systemic stress
across the spectrum.
Each of these, individually, undermines
the conditions for agriculture. Collectively, they undermine the very
foundations of agriculture. Still, that's not the problem, per se.
Societies have faced combinations of these factors in the past, and
variously thrived, transformed or fell with trauma relatively local
in time and space. Hence the notion that the past is a guide to the
future..
But, in the course of only two or three
generations, we have all but lost the means to farm without
industrial technology. Should we stumble in our course – should the
inputs from the grid, industrial chemistry, seed, fuel and machinery,
transport, cold storage, processing and canning pause for longer than
we can live from food on hand... if we collectively miss a planting
season... what then?
Every two farmers feeding each hundred
of us would be hard pressed to feed themselves in such a case.
Hybrid seed is only worth a single crop. Plowing, planting and
harvesting by hand (to name only three steps)? Water must flow by
gravity or locally-powered pump. How to store the harvest? How to
distribute it? To whom? Some jury rig is possible... modern
understanding may ease the reinvention of some practices... but we'd
be in deep doo doo.
Could something bring the global
economy to a halt? I and others argue (elsewhere) that yes, it could,
and sooner or later, will. Like the human body, any complex adaptive
system is mortal. Blunt trauma, infection and 'normal accidents' go
with the territory.
History does guide us in this; all
civilizations come to an end. Ours is now global.
My great-Grandfather knew how to farm
the old way. In his lifetime, truck and tractor replaced horse and
wagon. He saw harvesters and later combines run the hands from field
to city. By the end of his life, he was a living anachronism.
The Amish, Mennonites and Hutterites
still carry the torch, but their entire output can feed no more than
a small, modern city. Third World farmers are often much closer to
traditional ways, but taken together can feed no more than a small,
modern country.
Peoples of the Stone, Bronze and Iron
Ages, the first farmers, those who came after through WWII... they
all carried with them knowledge and tools that we have scattered or
lost. For some thousand generations, the ways and means of
agriculture and husbandry carried survivors forward through thick and
thin. But it is different this time...
We have forgotten how to farm.
PS. Even worse, we have forgotten how
to live as non-farmers in the wild. How many of us thrown
'naked into the wilderness' could survive, much less thrive? How many
could build a shelter or make fire? Gather wild forage? Hunt or fish
with DIY tools? Dress our wounds? Find our way?
But all these things can be learned. If
nothing else, they comprise a fascinating hobby!
I'm Sam the guy that commented about the vortex. I understand that you and lot of people like yourself don't want a lot more people and feel that the whole thing is coming crushing down. I'm not saying this as a neg to you, I understand this as I'm not to fond of crowds but it just doesn't have to be this way. The main problem is mostly people who want to control everyone but it doesn't have to be. Population growth has gone down most everywhere but Africa and look at this.
ReplyDeleteScientists ‘Grow’ Food Using Electricity
http://www.foodandwine.com/news/scientists-grow-food-using-electricity
Now the efficiency of plants growing is about 2%. Plants suck but a solar cell is around 20% so if you can grow food this way it will multiply food creation by a factor of ten while making good crop land unnecessary. I like what your doing but don't get too wound up about the end of the world as it's not necessary at all.
Hi Sam,
DeleteSorry for the delay... been offline.
This approach is interesting, but there's some info missing. Proteins are only one component of our nutritional needs. In survival situations in cold environments, for example, one quickly goes down without the energy inputs from carbohydrates and fats, both important agricultural outputs.
The article you cite didn't mention the efficiency of conversion from electrical inputs to protein... 20% is solar to electricity.
So this is a promising start, but it only points toward a possibility that addresses a fragment of the problem.
Meanwhile, feeding people is itself only a portion of the general problem of over populations (still extant in areas of declining pop). Ongoing and accelerating damage to our environmental life support systems is reaching critical stages world-wide (deforestation, for example). Every human being is not just a consumer of food, but of a vast range of goods and services whose every instance puts demands on the world system.
So...?
Dave Z