The above graph is adapted from Limits to Growth, Revisited. It is not a hard and fast prediction, but rather the product of a model with 40 years of high correspondence with developments. We are, at present, at the top of the growth curves, many of which have already begun to plateau. Slopes of decline do not factor in such worst-case scenarios as widespread urban- or domestic nuclear facilities collapse consequent to economic collapse.

I've added the shading and 'crossover' circle' (coincident with 'peak everything') to indicate my best guess as to the high probablility zone for global, economic collapse, triggering the onset of TEOTWAWKI.

I fear a hard landing... no 'reboot' or 'transition' to a lower functioning economy. I urge high priority preparation now.

I've got a short glossary of terms at the bottom of this page... if you come across an unfamiliar term, please scroll down and check it out.

Information I'm including or pointing to doesn't mean I necessarily agree with it. Rather, I've found it to be stimulating and worthy of consideration. I'm sure you'll exercise your own judgement... we're nothing if not independent! 8)

Friday, January 9, 2015


Planet Petri Dish


Since Y2K, nothing with an associated date has concerned me more than any other. But this year... I'm picking up a vibe.

Nothing particular stands out. 

We're skittering along the usual up and down slopes at accelerating speed. Oscillations are getting wilder, but we've grown to expect that. Abundance is slipping away from us, but there's still (nearly) half of everything left, isn't there? 

All this has seemed critical for decades - a small interval in history. No particular reason to think it might go bust this year.

But something's in the wind...

Many observers who've never committed themselves to a prediction are restless. Lowing and milling in our courses. Spooked.

Many who've reliably cheerled the the team with rah-rahs of Growth! Excelsior! Never better, thank you very much! are entering 2015 with the jitters. A dim perception of trouble brewing is coming to a simmer.

Could be the return of nuclear posturing among the heavy hitters. Could be the emergence of Ebola (still a Level IV pathogen), and it's potential escape into the wider Third World. Could be the death throes of American Empire. Could be the spectre of Islamic fundamentalist unrest threatening the heart of Middle East oil kingdoms. Could be the financial meltdown threatened by fiat money, global debt, untamed derivatives, shift of reserve currency, etc.. Could be 'climate change', from CO2 or jacked up on perma-frost methane release. Could be any number of unmonitored threats stemming from fouling our petri dish.

The sense - or realization - that we  have lost control - is waxing pandemic. Global symptoms of Collapse, with which we've lived our entire lives, have grown feverish and are nearing convulsive intensity.

In terms of Limits to Growth type projections - a graphic of which banners this blog - we are just now leaving the give-or-take margins of uncertainty flanking the cusp of our arc. One or both feet are now firmly planted on the slippery slope of the catastrophic Seneca Cliff (or catabolic Long Descent, if you prefer).

What does this mean for ourselves?

Time to double-check our preparations. Gather our Tribe. Get our affairs in order. Make our peace. Maybe say our good-byes. None of this can hurt.

It could be just another year of everything getting worse for most folks...

But could be feelin' the tremblor, before the Big One, that puts the birds to flight.


  1. I have that same weird sixth sense thing going on Dave. Think that the next 4-5 years are going to be telling. I'm in the catastrophic collapse camp like you. Check out Robert Scribbler's blog on arctic warming. Also busy onboard our old but loved home of a peterson44 installing all renewable power sources, with spares and redunancy (wind, solar and water gen) Keeps us cruising with less and futureproofs us a little from what maybe ahead. We keep 6 months of fresh food and a year of dried goods aboard, are energy independent of fossil fuels at anchor and underway, so there isn't much more we can do. Hope to make it to the west coast of the americas at some point in the future, perhaps our wakes will cross, and I'll share a glass of homemade sloe gin with you. Fair winds and slainte colin

    1. Hi Skip,

      So refreshing to hear from you! Not many of us (at least whom I hear of) in the 'Bug Out Boat' camp who take things seriously enough to actually equip the vessel for trouble!

      I can imagine a few in Atlantis, alarmed by tremblors and a few toppled buildings ('statistical anomalies'... nothing to worry about, soothed their officials). Some of those must have cried, TO THE BOATS, and a few of THOSE must have climbed aboard and sailed for deep water.

      Not exactly a crowd. 8\

      Ah well, if you come our way, the fire's warm and lots of tales to swap!

      Dave Z

      PS. Thanks for the pointer to Scribbler, I'll check him out.

  2. Same feeling of a impending 2015-2016 collapse as well. The trap is a lulling into complacency after this post credit crunch (2008) prolonged propping up. DOrlov structures a sound scenario of quick collapse due to banking failure. The quickening pace is telling. Ultimately only a southern hemisphere relocation makes any sense for a extended life due to the radiation angles. And then not all that long of a extension. But, what life, in our global tour, we do have is short and sweet and it makes sense to enjoy it while we can and stretch it out. I'd rather go out peacefully in a quiet fiord, with friends, than at the wrong end of a smoking shotgun in some inner city. I had the good fortune this past summer to live on a remote, truly 3rd world island where the credit seizure and distribution snafus of the current paradigm just won't be felt all that profoundly.... not like inner city Detroit. It's all relative. Prepare for the worst and meanwhile celebrate the best!

  3. Hi Robert,

    So many options to fail. But I'm with you... far from the maddening crowd is a preferable scenario.

    Meanwhile; eat, drink and be merry!

    Dave Z


Hey Folks... I'm not in a position to moderate comments. If discussion remains respectful and on topic, I welcome comments (passion okay). If it spins out of control, I'll have disallow them... I thank you for your civility.

I've opened comments to all 'Registered Users' (whatever that means!) to help weed out pesky spam.

- Dave Z